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Category: Labour

Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls?

Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls?

UKPollingReport Does this point to a Labour standstill or small decline? In the week before Christmas Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report put forward the theory that Labour’s standing in the polls was closely linked with how optimistic the public were about the economy or the level of consumer confidence. He argued that Labour’s low point in the early summer coincided with the low points on the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index and the Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence Index. Thus…

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Why doesn’t Gord sound convincing about the election?

Why doesn’t Gord sound convincing about the election?

Would a bit more frankness help his position? It’s inevitable, I suppose, given the total cock-up in Labour’s communications ahead of the election that never was in October 2007, that Brown is going to be pressed about the date whenever he submits himself to an interview. This came up in the latest Andrew Marr interview and it will come up time and time again. So why doesn’t he make an effort to sound convincing? For perhaps the most damaging feature…

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Would a deal with Brown destroy the Lib Dems?

Would a deal with Brown destroy the Lib Dems?

Is Oborne right about a pre-election LAB-LD “arrangement” There’s a fascinating piece in the Mail today by columnist, Peter Oborne, in which he suggests that something might be going on between Brown’s government and the Lib Dems that would bring the latter more closely into a “government of national unity”. The pretext, of course, would be the need for coming together in order to deal with the economic storm. “Unity” in this context, of course, does not extend to the…

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Are “Brown Bounce 1” losers still affecting the markets?

Are “Brown Bounce 1” losers still affecting the markets?

Is this why the Tory spreads continue to advance? The New Year PB “Balance of Money” Index based on the average prices on the spread betting markets suggests that Cameron’s Tories will win the next general election with an overall majority of 28 seats. The Index is so called because it reflects the collective views of punters based on how much they are prepared to risk on the number of seats the parties will get in the coming contest. These…

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The final bet of 2008: Will Gord survive till midnight?

The final bet of 2008: Will Gord survive till midnight?

What I am carrying forward into 2009 At midnight tonight, assuming nothing untoward happens to Gord, I pick up on quite a hefty bet that I placed in the early summer at 5/6 that Brown would still be Prime Minister at the end of the year. And if by any remote chance he doesn’t there are a another couple of bets I placed at 6/1 and 5/1 at a different time that he would be out by the end of…

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Which is the best bet here?

Which is the best bet here?

Could one of the three main leaders be out in 2009? In the panel are the prices in the Ladbrokes leader markets for 2009. The question is whether there is any value in any of them? Is Brown going to survive and if so is the 4/11 you can get a good bet? I’m not wholly sure because if the polls went sharply against him then would the party be so forgiving again? Could there be a forceful challenge or…

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Should you take the 100/1 Blunkett Xmas present?

Should you take the 100/1 Blunkett Xmas present?

What about him getting his old job back? One of the top ten political betting tips listed in my 2007 book, The Political Punter, was that if ever there was a chance to have a wager on something involving David Blunkett – then get your money on. For there was a period when the ups and downs of the visually handicapped Sheffield MP provided a steady income for those who liked gambling on politics. Who can forget the huge media…

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What if the polls turned against Gord again?

What if the polls turned against Gord again?

Could his replacement once again become an issue? One thing that we’ve learned about Gordon in the past eighteen months is that he thrives when things are going his way. Cast your mind back to his supreme confidence in the July – September 2007 period and just look at how he has been transformed in the past three months. But what if it starts to go wrong again? What if the couple of polls at the end of 2008 turn…

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