Browsed by
Category: Labour

What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

Comments 0 Comment

Woodnewton Associates How predictive are leader aprroval ratings six months out? The above table has been prepared by pollling analyst Mark Gill and appears on the Gary Gibbon blog on the Channel 4 website. Using Gallup Poll leader approval data for 1959 – 1974 and Ipsos MORI for 1979 – 2009 it seeks to show the extent to which those those numbers were predictive from six months out before the election. Just look at it election by election and then…

Read More Read More

Could there be a secret MPs ballot on Brown’s future?

Could there be a secret MPs ballot on Brown’s future?

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes Would such a plot make this market more attractive? With Ladbrokes re-opening their “Who’ll be PM at the end of the year” betting there’s news this morning of plan to give Labour MPs a secret vote when they could express their views on whether or not Gordon should lead Labour into the general election. According to Tim Shipman in the Mail “a senior backbencher is being lined up to call for Mr Brown’s head and give MPs the chance…

Read More Read More

Is Darling going to be Labour’s Geoffrey Howe?

Is Darling going to be Labour’s Geoffrey Howe?

Comments 0 Comment

Mail Online Will the Chancellor be the one who brings down Brown? For someone like me who has been a Brown-sceptic for at least four years it is blindingly obvious that Labour would fare better in the coming election with a different leader. Mind you I felt the same in the run-up to Brown’s coronation in 2007 and I was wrong then about what Labour MPs would do. It seemed impossible, in my view, that those who wanted to keep…

Read More Read More

Could this be good news for Labour?

Could this be good news for Labour?

Comments 0 Comment

FT online Or has the FT come to the wrong conclusion? There’s some research in the Financial Times from the the data service firm, Experian, that suggests that fewer people are being hit by the recession in the Labour held marginals than in other constituencies and the paper is speculating as to whether this is good news for Brown Central. The research shows that in those Labour seats which the party would lose with a swing of 6.5% – 8.25%…

Read More Read More

Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

Comments 0 Comment

UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…

Read More Read More

Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

Comments 0 Comment

CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…

Read More Read More