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David Herdson says the electoral battlefield has never favoured LAB so strongly

David Herdson says the electoral battlefield has never favoured LAB so strongly

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Is 35% Labour’s new bedrock support? It’s better to be lucky than to be good, so the saying goes – and in politics, success or failure frequently turns on the timing of events over which those involved have little or no control: their luck, in effect.  What they make of that luck is a different matter. To that end, the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Conservatives delivered Ed Miliband a very great slice of luck.  Not only did…

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Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum” move might be less of a gamble than it looks

Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum” move might be less of a gamble than it looks

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The fact a YouGov EU referendum poll, which shows In ahead only for the second time, gets more coverage abroad than in the UK, says a lot. — Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) March 11, 2014 What could have potency is “being denied a vote” We are now just ten weeks away from the Euro Elections and today sees Ed Miliband make a speech in which, effectively, he rules out offering an referendum on whether the UK should stay IN or OUT….

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Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

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The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

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LAB lead back up to 6 in tonight's YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 39% LD 10% UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2014 That is not to say that it won’t Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB back at 39% the share at which it has been getting for months as the YouGov weekly average trend chart above shows. One of the dangers with all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. Clearly many factors are at…

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The Tories go on the offensive with a personal attack against Ed Miliband – but there are dangers with this approach

The Tories go on the offensive with a personal attack against Ed Miliband – but there are dangers with this approach

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Says it all. Let's RT… pic.twitter.com/UrGiNTsP1I — Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) February 24, 2014 Open season now for ad hominen attacks on @grantshapps. There's certainly plenty of material for it. — Susan (@marthasydenham) February 24, 2014 Good to see @grantshapps endorsing ad hominem personal attacks as an electioneering tool. Brave move by Michael Green. Very brave. — Simon HB (@norock) February 24, 2014 And we’ve got more than 14 months to go I’m not convinced that the Tories have got…

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YouGov, like Survation at the weekend, finds 61 percent back raising the tax rate for high earners to 50p

YouGov, like Survation at the weekend, finds 61 percent back raising the tax rate for high earners to 50p

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But YouGov finds more people are opposed We’ve now got the second poll on the Ed Balls tax plan announced on Saturday. It’s from YouGov for today’s Times and finds 61% to 26% against. The detail hasn’t been published yes but the paper reports that LAB voters are overwhelmingly supportive, while 52% cent of CON supporters are opposed.45% think the move would help the economy, 19% say it would cause damage. Labour will be pleased that this key policy continues…

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Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

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And YouGov has lead down to 2% The monthly ComRes/Indy survey is one of just three monthly national polls remaining which use the telephone and its publication, usually at the end of the month, is always an occasion. The latest party shares with changes on December are in the chart above and as can be seen the big move has been LAB down 4 while UKIP has gone up by the same amount. The result is that Miliband’s party now…

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