UPDATED 2030 CON 42 % (38) LAB 29 % (29) LD 19 %(19) The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories? A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central. There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static. This is the second of two recent polls…
Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…
But is the trend bad news for Brown’s party? In the coming month or so we are likely to see many more polls like this which seek to find out the political preferences of specific professional groups. This, from MORI, is based on a survey of 1,000 teachers in England and Wales with the fieldwork taking place over a five week period towards the end of last year. It’s hard to know what to make of it though it does…
CON 32% (21.4) LAB 35% (42.7) LD 13% (18.4) PC 13% (12.6) But the numbers point to big Tory gains In what I believe is only the second Wales-specific YouGov poll both Labour and the Tories have both moved up a point on the first such survey last November while the Lib Dems and PC have been knocked back a point each. The comparisons above are with the 2005 general election outcome in the Principality. If this is indeed what…
Newcastle Journal What does this say about Labour and the Lib Dems? Thanks to Tapestry on the previous thread for highlighting the above report from the Newcastle Journal about the government chief whip and long-standing ally of the Prime Minister, Nick Brown. At the election he’ll be defending Newcastle upon Tyne East from the Lib Dems which would fall to Clegg’s party on an 8.7% swing So what are we to make of his extraordinary comments suggesting that the Lib…
And we all know what happened in the election that followed Don’t forget to enter the PB 2010 Prediction Competition if you’ve not already done so, hosted by The Election Game, and asking for predictions on the election and ICM polls amongst others. The original thread is here and this is the direct link to the competition – entries close at midnight on Friday. Anyone interested in taking part in the 2010 Election Game season, please email me here –…
Simon & Garfunkel – Mrs Robinsonby Salut-les-copains PaddyPower make it a 5/1 shot I don’t know much about the world of pop music but I’ve been a life-long fan of Simon & Garfunkel. So what are we to make of the PaddyPower bet at 5/1 that “Mrs. Robinson” will make to Number 1 this month? An extraordinary coincidence given the name and the plot of that classic movie “The Graduate”. Mike Smithson
Bet365 Should you be taking the 11/4 for 324 seat or fewer? Thanks to our regular betting poster, URW, for spotting this one – the 11/4 (in old money) or the 2.75 in the new parlance that Bet365 have on the Tories coming out with fewer that 325 seats. This total, of course, is the minimum that is required for a majority. Unlike the range of conventional hung parliament bets this covers you in all situations that Cameron Tories don’t…