Browsed by
Category: General Election

ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

Comments 0 Comment

The front page of tomorrow's I pic.twitter.com/2fkFD2SRqT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2015 But does this poll really tell us anything? An ORB poll for the Independent carried out over the weekend finds that 76% of those who had a view believe that LAB is less electable now than it was at the general election. We’ve not yet seen the dataset or the precise question wording but the overall picture looks gloomy for the red team and sets out…

Read More Read More

Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

Comments 0 Comment

The data that underlines the importance of the current election Whichever of the four ins he/she will have to be perceived a lot better than Ed was if the red team is to have any chance whatsoever. This polling should be at the heart of the leadership campaign. A non-credible leader means a likely third consecutive general election defeat. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The prospect of fighting a disintegrating LAB could cause Dave to change his mind about stepping down

The prospect of fighting a disintegrating LAB could cause Dave to change his mind about stepping down

Comments 0 Comment

Is he having second thoughts about his exit date? Following Cameron’s comments in the BBC interview at the end of March there’s a widespread assumption that at some stage this parliament that he’ll step aside and a new CON leader will be elected presumably becoming PM before the May 2020 general election. But is he? The conversation in Cameron’s kitchen came at a time when the election outcome looked very tight. Very few were making assumptions that an overall CON…

Read More Read More

This afternoon what’s only the eighth GE2020 voting intention poll since May 7th

This afternoon what’s only the eighth GE2020 voting intention poll since May 7th

Comments 0 Comment

LDs in double figures in first VI poll following Farron's election as leader. See Ipsos-MORI July poll pic.twitter.com/OtOC8j6CwZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2015 Ipsos also asked whether the LAB4 were seen as potential PMs How are the LAB 4 seen as possible future PM's. This from July Ipsos-MORI poll pic.twitter.com/dgfiG59Je8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2015

The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

Comments 0 Comment

LAB supporters more likely to have overstated certainty to vote There’s an important paper just out from the British Election Study on what went wrong with the polls on May 7th. Why did it happen? The report by Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser does not give much credence to the “late swing”, “don’t knows” and “shy Tory” theories and argues that differential turnout was most to blame. Those over-stating their likelihood to vote were more likely to be those saying…

Read More Read More

It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

Comments 0 Comment

September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 What should be noted about this poll was that it took place six days after the postal ballot packs had gone out and for many…

Read More Read More

New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

Comments 0 Comment

House of Commons Library blog – Steven Ayres In 5/6ths its 120 GE15 2nd places it faces majorities of 10%+ In the aftermath of May 7th UKIP was taking some comfort from the 120 second places it had chalked up suggesting that this provided a good platform for next time. Maybe. Steven Ayres on the House of Commons Library blog has produced an interesting analysis of Farage’s party’s performance and the potential to build on its record GE15. His chart…

Read More Read More

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

Comments 0 Comment

The chart says it all. There have been just 6 general election polls published in the UK since May 7th – a sharp contrast with the numbers we saw even by this stage five years ago. Confidence in the numbers that are produced has collapsed – a situation not helped by the polling ahead of last weekend’s referendum in Greece. If polling cannot give us even a broad picture of a likely general election outcome then what is the point?…

Read More Read More