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Category: General Election

Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LAB voters who want to remain

Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LAB voters who want to remain

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YouGov He’s got away with it so far but that could end abruptly One of the extraordinary features about the current febrile political situation is that Corbyn is taking a totally different line on Brexit from the vast majority of Labour voters. His ambivalence survived the GE2017 campaign because, frankly, no one believed his party stood an earthly and it didn’t receive the critical attention Team TMay had to deal with. Now LAB is leading in the polls (2% up…

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New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures

New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures

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This sounds feasible. LAB did better in seat most threatened with NHS reform & A&E closures https://t.co/wKddsX78qb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 How true is the assertion that the NHS cost TMay her majority? The I report notes that: “The new analysis, by the specialist health consultancy Incisive Health and seen by i, reveals that the average 2017 swing from Conservatives to Labour in 105 marginal seats facing local A&E changes was 3.2 per cent. In seats not…

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CON members’ polling with Davis ahead, plots to get TMay to quit, and how the Great Repeal Bill could be scuppered

CON members’ polling with Davis ahead, plots to get TMay to quit, and how the Great Repeal Bill could be scuppered

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The main political stories this Sunday morning Exclusive: Tory grassroots figures call for Theresa May to consider quitting by Christmas https://t.co/2myHSMcoHT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 CON members polling: David Davis get most support in battle to succeed Theresa Mayhttps://t.co/nKPYfXgQkk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 LD and LAB plot to delay Great Repeal Bill 'could be the thing that does it for Theresa May' https://t.co/os5zgUgJu8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

Why the Tories, Labour and the LDs should ensure that their next leaders are Scottish

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Remember Gordon Brown’s LAB and Charles Kennedy’s LDs GE2010 & GE2005 Scottish performances I’ve published the above chart before – the experience of LAB at GE2010 which totally knocked on the head the notion of uniform national swing. We all know that election wasn’t a good one for Gordon Brown’s LAB. They lost power after suffering huge seat losses. There was one part of the UK which bucked the overall trend Scotland. Whereas in England LAB was down more than…

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The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

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How Prof Steve Fisher and Nate Silver provided the pointers On Wednesday, alongside Keiran Pedley and other leading pollsters, I took part in a post GE2017 conference organised by the University of Loughborough at its London campus in the Olympic park. It was a good event and I’m looking forward to some of the serious studies, including the post-election BES analysis that will be published. My contribution started by asserting that the whole polling CON landslide narrative during the campaign…

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In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement

In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement

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There’s almost a story a day running on who’ll be TMay’s successor although she’s given no indication other than that she’s staying put at Number 10 and would probably like to remain to beyond Brexit and beyond. But the PM’s personal authority was badly dented by the shock outcome to GE17 and, of course, her parliamentary position is neither strong nor stable. Her party, of course, has been riven with divisions on Europe for decades and arguably it brought the…

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This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17 event tomorrow at the London Olympic Park

This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17 event tomorrow at the London Olympic Park

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We welcome @IpsosMORI @ComRes @Survation @GfK & @MSmithsonPB to our free #GE2017 event tomorrow https://t.co/c9wNy14tPn #polling #NewMR #Mrx pic.twitter.com/5I8leh53sk — Loughborough CRCC (@lboroCRCC) July 18, 2017 This event provides an exploration of the momentous 2017 General Election from the perspectives of those most intimately involved as strategists, journalists and analysts. It will feature contributions from the campaigning, news and social media as well as polling organisations involved in the election. Participants include Ric Bailey (BBC), Jay Blumler (Univ of Leeds),…

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Some numbers that could help TMay’s survival. Another poll, YouGov, has her & the Tories edging back a touch

Some numbers that could help TMay’s survival. Another poll, YouGov, has her & the Tories edging back a touch

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But still LAB leads Given how close it is to the last election it is hardly surprsisng that there are so few voting intention polls coming out. Today’s from YouGov is only the second since Mrs. May lost her majority on June 8th and has the gap down just a touch. CON 40 +2 LAB 45 -1 LD 7 = UKIP 2-2 This follows the weekend’s Survation online poll which had the LAB lead down to 2% from 6% on…

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