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Category: General Election

Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat

Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat

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Two days ago in my post on why there would not be a general election until 2022 I observed that there have been very few by elections in CON held seats in recent times. Tory MPs have been a lot healthier than LAB ones. What CON by-elections defences there have been have been caused by other factors such as the weird resignation by the then shadow Home Secretary David Davis in 2008 so he could fight his own seat for…

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The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

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Table – Commons Library Why BoJo/Andrea/Phil/David/Amber might be cheering Nicola on The group of constituencies that have seen the most dramatic changes over the past two general elections have been the 59 seats in Scotland. At GE2010 when Labour lost power there were no changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had just 6 seats with the…

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Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead

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And Remain 3 points ahead to hypothetical 2nd EuRef question Survation, the pollsters that was widely, and as it turned out unfairly, criticised in the run-up to GE2017 because it had the smallest CON leads has a new voting poll it. Its relatively old with its fieldwork being carried out in the week of the Tory conference when the blue team were making the headlines for all sorts of reason. The splits are CON 38%, LAB 44%, and LD 7%….

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Why the next general election will be in 2022

Why the next general election will be in 2022

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Incumbent PMs of whichever party now much less likely to go early At the end of my session before the House of Lords Committee yesterday the chairman, Lord Lipsey asked for our thoughts on the likely year of the next general election. I took the view that this parliament will continue to run a full term under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act and so June 2022 will be when the country votes next. This is in spite of the fact that…

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DUP lose 3 seats in new boundary proposals to put it behind SF

DUP lose 3 seats in new boundary proposals to put it behind SF

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This isn’t going to be popular with TMay’s supply & confidence partners Well done to Martin Baxter for getting his boundaries projection out so fast. His figures showing what would happen if they’d been in force on June 8th have the Tories just into majority territory but with the DUP suffering in Northern Ireland. It is for this reason perhaps more than any why this plan is unlikely to happen. But the law reducing the size of the Commons from…

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Hammond looks set to reward the young for turning out in such numbers at GE2017

Hammond looks set to reward the young for turning out in such numbers at GE2017

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Mail Online But taking from older workers could be a big electoral gamble As was said repeatedly in the lead-up to June 8th the reason that the younger generations appear to get so poorly treated by governments is that by, in the past, not turning out at elections at similar rates to older ones they are seen to be electorally less important. Well the big move on general election day was a big increase in turnout levels in the 18-24…

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After the weekend break welcome back to the coalition of chaos

After the weekend break welcome back to the coalition of chaos

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It shouldn’t be able to go on like this but it probably will The cartoon just about sums it up. Time is running out under the Brexit extraction process and it is hard to say with any certainty who will be the senior members of government at Christmas. TMay is now a diminished figure and in spite of the apparent turmoil within her party she simply does not have the authority to try to reshuffle her cabinet. One side of…

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To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50 MPs

To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50 MPs

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One thing I think is for sure – there’ll be no move to remove the diminished TMay next week. MPs will be mostly focused on the position their own seats and the impact of revised boundary plans. Although not implemented in 2015 the law reducing the size of the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs is still in force and the Boundary Commission has been going through the process of redrawing the boundaries with the aim of bringing…

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