Will this be a by election nightmare for Cameron? It is always sad that when a sitting MP dies the first thoughts of the political classes are on the up-coming by election – and I am sure that such a hardy campaigner as Gwyneth Dunwoody was the same. She was 77 when she died yesterday and holds the distinction of being the longest ever serving female MP. As her Wikipedia biography records she was first elected to the commons for…
Is five seats the most that Cameron can hope for? There has been much discussion on whether regional swings may provide a hidden bonus for the Tories at the next election. In particular, so the logic goes, the Tories are underperforming in Scotland, so they must be doing above average in England (and/or Wales.) True enough, but how can we measure the differences, and calibrate any possible benefit? In truth we can’t, for the simple fact that regional poll breakdowns…
Cameron’s party hits 44% – the highest since the Thatcher years A new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories at 44% the second highest share in any poll since the Thatcher years. The headline with figures the changes on the last survey from the pollster a fortnight ago are:- CON 44%(+1),: LAB 28%(-1): LD 17%(nc). This poll equals that which Tony Blair got in his landslide victory in May 1997 and the margin is in excess of…
Is 5/1 that he will a good value bet? Matthew Parris’s Saturday column in the Times is almost always a good read although his views on Gordon Brown have to be read in the context of an hostility that has continued for years. But this morning he raises an issue that I have been planning to cover for weeks – could Gordon be out before the general election? Parris concludes: “..Many political and journalistic reputations have been staked on taking…
So is it a workable Tory majority or a hung parliament? Since the budget there have been eight general election opinion polls – three from ICM, two from YouGov and one each from the other pollsters that do regular monthly surveys – MORI, ComRes and Populus. What’s interesting is that the big Tory surge that’s both affecting the betting markets and the political climate generally has been based primarily on two pollsters, ICM and YouGov – the firms, incidentally, that…
Why you cannot make comparisons with the run up to 1997 The above is reproduced from Anthony Wells’s excellent UK Polling Report site and shows the polls in the final month before the 1997 general election which Labour won with a margin of 13%. Just compare the above figures with the final shares of CON 31.4%: LAB 44.4%: LD 17.2% I refer back to this because time and time again you will read or hear commentators and politicians say that…
The April monthly survey by Populus for the Times is being published this evening and first indications are that it’s very bad for Gordon. The headline is already up on the Times web-site and reads “Economic confidence falters as Labour plunges”. UPDATE: The shares are now available and show CON 39% (+2): LAB 33%(-1 ): LD 17%(-2) This has not quite lived up to it billing and while a six point margin should put the Tories ahead on seats it…
Was this behind the worst ICM ratings for three months? This morning’s ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph is good news for the Conservatives, good news for Labour but bad news for the Lib Dems. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM survey just a fortnight ago – CON 43%(+1): LAB 32%(+3): LD 18%(-3). The comparisons in the previous post were with the last ICM survey in the paper in early January. The pollster’s methodology is usually…