One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…
What will the headlines be like three weeks today? It has become one of the great hardy annuals in UK political journalism – the Sunday papers after the May elections when year in year out the main story has been about the future of one party leader or another. And so it is today and above are a couple of the front pages. But is it different this time? Does Labour’s worst local election performance for forty years combined with…
Will the mood about Tory prospects now change? One of the most satisfying moments in betting is when you are transferring your profits into your bank account and it was good to see that Betfair settled the London mayoral market so so soon after last night’s results. For this activity is more than about the money but tangible confirmation of your predictive abilities. Anybody can have a view on a political outcome – the gambler backs up his with hard…
Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend – a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election. To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:- ComRes C40:…
Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc) The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when…
The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month. The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1) So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats. This polling change could not…
Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade? As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest. For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results…
Are we now heading for a Conservative majority? As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2) Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a…