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Category: General Election

Brown’s speech barely moves the betting markets

Brown’s speech barely moves the betting markets

But where are the Labour spread buyers? They might have been cheering in the conference hall in Manchester but the general election betting markets barely moved in response to Brown’s speech yesterday. If the speech was the “game-changer” that Labour hoped it would be then most punters did not notice. As can be seen from the chart above the Labour odds on getting most seats, converted into an implied probability, edged up just one percent in response to the speech…

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Will this afternoon’s speech change any of these minds?

Will this afternoon’s speech change any of these minds?

Click on the panel to watch Have even Labour-leaners just given up on Brown? The picture above is the final screen-shot form the three-part Frank Luntz Newsnight focus group in Manchester which was shown last night. It shows how those involved responded when Luntz asked those who had just “given up on Gordon” to raise their hands. I didn’t do a count but it appeared that about four-fifths of the participants indicated their agreement – and that in a nutshell…

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Did Deborah tell them about the “Golden Polling Rule”

Did Deborah tell them about the “Golden Polling Rule”

Why Labour should always assume the worst from the polls This is Deborah Mattinson – Labour’s polling advisor who was part of conference session at the weekend on the polls trying to make the case that Cameron has “..yet to seal the deal”. I don’t know about that but the lesson from polling history is that Labour’s default position should be that the most accurate poll is the one with the party in the least favourable position – what I…

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Could it be an all female assassination squad?

Could it be an all female assassination squad?

What is it about Labour’s women and Gordon? A striking feature of the mini-rebellion that started only a week ago last Friday was the preponderance of woman who came out in support of the move by Siobhain McDonagh – the government whip whose resignation got the ball rolling. That’s been continued with the replies today of a survey in the Independent’s of all members of the Cabinet. Apart from John Hutton, a long-standing Brown-doubter, Hazel Blears, Jacqui Smith and Ruth…

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Were you a Brown buyer or seller a year ago today?

Were you a Brown buyer or seller a year ago today?

What can we learn from the betting and polls of September 2007 Exactly a year ago – on September 22nd 2007 – Labour, like today was in conference in Manchester and all the talk was about the “coming election”. There were even suggestions that Brown might announce something in his speech – like this year taking place on the Tuesday. There was lots of excitement on the betting markets and I clipped the above from the Spreadfair spread betting exchange…

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Labour level-pegging in Glenrothes: ICM

Labour level-pegging in Glenrothes: ICM

But will the polls be as wrong as they were in Glasgow East? A night of four polls all doing very different things has been finalised with an ICM survey in Glenrothes, scene of the upcoming by-election, which suggests that Labour is in for a hard fight. In the seat that adjoins Brown’s and where the party had a 10,600 majority at the general election ICM found that both Labour and the SNP were on 43% each. That’s fine except…

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Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Lib Dems get big conference boost with YouGov

Labour only four points ahead of Nick Clegg’s party On top of the good news overnight from the Frank Luntz focus group there’s a big boost for the Lib Dems tonight in the September YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph. The figures are with changes on the last poll from the firm two weeks ago:- CON 44%(-2): LAB 24% (-3): LD 20% (+4) This is the highest Lib Dem figure from the internet pollster since November 2005 – the month…

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Bob Worcester on the MORI 28% Tory lead

Bob Worcester on the MORI 28% Tory lead

(This is the second guest slot that Bob Worcester, the founder of MORI (now Ipsos-MORI) has produced for PB in which he reviews the polls from his experience of nearly 40 years conducting and observing polls and how they are reported.) “Brown doomed as Tories head for 330 majority” Have I got news for you, as they say, especially directed at the sub-editor on the Express who used the latest Ipsos MORI poll showing a 28% Conservative lead with the…

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