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Category: General Election

Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey? After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after…

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How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

Could it be a game-changer for Labour? There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation. It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day. The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a…

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So has Osborne recovered the initiative for the Tories?

So has Osborne recovered the initiative for the Tories?

Click panel to view BBC news clip What do we think of the council tax plan? After last year’s dramatic Monday at the Tory conference when George Osborne’s inheritance tax plan helped turned the political narrative on its head there was a degree of expectation when he got up to speak this morning. Alas the conference is being over-shadowed by the dramatic developments in the financial world and whatever Osborne said it was going to get nothing like the attention…

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Was Purnell’s speech too good for his own good?

Was Purnell’s speech too good for his own good?

Is this the man the Gord Gang is most worried about? Whenever party leaders are changed, it appears, the main selection criteria, it would appear, is for someone with the qualities that the outgoing person appears to lack. Look at Blair to Brown or Ming to Nick Clegg to get the general idea. And of the limited array of talent on parade at the Labour conference last week the potential leader who appeared to do best with his speech was…

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Can we have confidence in the Sunday Telegraph’s new pollster?

Can we have confidence in the Sunday Telegraph’s new pollster?

Sunday Telegraph Has ICM been been dumped for an unregistered firm? There’s a lot going on at the moment and the apparent decision of a major Sunday newspaper to switch pollsters might not seem that important – but today’s BPIX poll in the Sunday Telegraph raises serious issues for all who care about polling transparency. For after using the respected ICM firm for years the Sunday Telegraph’s poll this morning is from a firm that is not part of the…

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Is the issue now “Downing Street Dysfunctionality”?

Is the issue now “Downing Street Dysfunctionality”?

How dangerous is such a widespread media perception? Two days the Labour conference in Manchester and time for more reflection and analysis of what is right and what is wrong with the party as its leader he seeks to hold onto office. There’s one term that features in much of the coverage which is highly damaging to Brown – “Downing Street Dysfunctionality”. This is said to have embodied in the farcical circumstances surrounding the 3am press conference in a hotel…

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Good conference – bad conference?

Good conference – bad conference?

What’s the leadership fallout from Manchester? Gordon Brown – better conference than might have been expected. Speech OK with party activists and might expect a poll boost. Looks like he’ll survive at least until the 2009 local and Euro elections. Good conference. Harriet Harman – will have upset Tory supporters with the personal nature of her attacks on Cameron but went down well with the delegates. She’s still there and she owes her position a contested election of the whole…

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Will Kelly take the gloss off Gord’s big speech?

Will Kelly take the gloss off Gord’s big speech?

Has her timing been designed to deliberately damage the PM? Less than fourteen hours after Gordon sat down at the end of his big conference speech in Manchester there’s a report this morning from Sky News that Ruth Kelly, the former Education secretary and now Transport minister, is to quit. Only two days ago we carried a story here about an Independent survey where Kelly was named as only one of four cabinet ministers not prepared to answer the question…

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