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Category: General Election

Did Glenrothes rip-up the election timing “rule-book”?

Did Glenrothes rip-up the election timing “rule-book”?

Would we be more exposed to TV in a winter election With all the talk of a 2009 election there’s almost a knee-jerk reaction that it really would have to take place between March and October because elections are pretty hard “to fight in the dark”. But is that necessarily the case? On the previous thread HenryG Manson noted “..However one broadsheet columnist made an astute point a few weeks ago that Glenrothes showed that Labour can win elections ‘in…

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Will welfare reform go through only with Tory support?

Will welfare reform go through only with Tory support?

How dangerous is such a radical package? As fore-shadowed in the Queen’s Speech the government has published its welfare reform white paper which, amongst many measures, seeks to get tough on claimants who are able to work. There’s little doubt that this will resonate will large sections of the electorate – but could it be a controversy too far in the run-up to an election? Marf’s cartoon sums it up – the measure might appear to be too tough for…

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What will the “greying” of the electorate do to voting?

What will the “greying” of the electorate do to voting?

Could this provide a hidden boost to Cameron? On a morning when there’s confirmation that there are now more pensioners in Britain than children I thought it might be useful to look at the potential electoral impact. This provides a useful peg to highlight a fascinating academic paper by Scott Davidson of Loughborough University which was published in 2006 called “The Grey Battleground”. The above table is from the paper. We are probably all aware of the key dynamics but…

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PB Balance of Money Index: CON Majority 32 seats

PB Balance of Money Index: CON Majority 32 seats

Why are gamblers lagging behind the polls? This evening “spreads” from the two main UK spread-betting firms suggest a Conservative majority of 32 seats at the general election. Their prices are based on how much is being wagered by gamblers who are buying and selling seats in the three main parties. The PB Index is a way of reflecting market opinion in one single number. It is worked out by looking at the “mid-points” – the difference between the BUY…

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Another day – another government initiative

Another day – another government initiative

Is Green-gate now just history For a demonstration of the power of the government to control the news agenda just look at today’s development with the planned ban on tobacco product displays in shops. This is a relatively minor move that won’t come in for corner shops until 2013 – yet look at how much coverage this has attracted. There’s a bit of controversy there and its something else to go on the bulletins. Meanwhile the Damian Green story will…

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Is the best bet the Tories in Q1-Q2 2009?

Is the best bet the Tories in Q1-Q2 2009?

Is Populus just following the Cameron exposure rule? The betting exchange, Betfair, have just put up the above new market where the “runners” are the date of the election broken down into six month segments and which party will end up with most seats. This promises to be a fascinating betting arena where I think a lot of the action will take place. Interestingly the latest prices on January-June 2009 election have Labour tighter than the Tories. This is probably…

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Has the News of the World made Martin more vulnerable?

Has the News of the World made Martin more vulnerable?

Could the Speaker have to face the music? If the News of the World report is right that the Crown Prosecution Service is concluding that the case against Green and Galley is “not prosecutable” then that puts a whole different complexion on the affair and today’s debate. For the possibility that there’s not a “crime” takes away one of the main props on which the two who are most exposed – the Speaker and the Home Secretary – had been…

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Are savers the first to feel the impact?

Are savers the first to feel the impact?

Will Gord get the blame as incomes are slashed? What a difference a day makes? Yesterday morning’s main article featured the front pages from mostly the right wing press which were full of plaudits for Brown’s mortgage rescue plan. Today there’s a new side of the economy featured that threatens to undermine the living standards of millions and millions of voters. For it has taken another drastic cut in interest rates for the media finally to pick up something that…

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