Could the LD’s price be a new Labour leader? We all like to play fantasy politics but the above outcome, based on feeding into the UK Polling report seat calculator numbers in line with some recent polls, is, surely quite plausible. Labour to win most seats but be five points down on the national vote with less than one third of the overall votes cast. Such an outcome would hardly be a ringing endorsement but Brown, or whoever, would would…
With five polls showing the same thing should he risk it? The “Golden Rule” has operated in every single general election, EU election, London Mayoral election and in by elections where there has been polling right back to the 1980s – so clearly the wise course for Labour is to look at the worst case scenario. Tory polling figures seem more robust than Labour ones. One of the great things about Decembers is that all the polling activity is normally…
Let’s get real about a 2009 Q1-Q2 election Everywhere, it seems, there is election date speculation and the new possibility that is coming into the frame is February 2009. But how seriously should we take this? For one of the problems we have at the moment is that the only polls that are getting highlighted are the ones at the extreme. So YouGov’s survey for the Sunday Times showing a small increase in the Tory share and a small decrease…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 11% (-4) What will this do to the election speculation? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Daily Mirror is out this morning and shows a four point increase in Labour support at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Tories are down two so last month’s MORI margin of 11% is reduced to 5%. The 11% Lib Dem share equals the lowest total that Nick Clegg’s party has had in any…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (nc) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) Tory lead still at just one point The IoS ComRes poll is just out and represents no change between the two main parties but a sharpish slump in the Lib Dem share. Clearly Labour will be delighted with the numbers though I would have expected Brown’s party would have done better given the Lib Dem movement. Normally a Lib Dem decline leads to a Labour boost – but not here….
Are there national implications in the C-Charge rejection? First of all hands up! I read the Manchester C-charge referendum wrongly thorough putting too much weight on the polls and believing that the £2.8bn promised investment would swing votes towards the proposal. What are the national implications? Firstly the Manchester vote following last year’s Edinburgh rejection will mean that it’s going to be much tougher pushing through such schemes. My guess is that we won’t see a further big C-charge proposal…
Will Green-gate affect anybody’s vote? Although there is still the odd story coming out the focus of the Westminster village has moved on from the Damien Green affair and it’s hard to see it bubbling up again. But what of the impact on the voters? No doubt Brown Central was cheered by the above figures from this week’s Populus poll. These showed 45% agreeing that “this is one of those typical Westminster arguments that bear no relation to the lives…
Will he ever live the phrase down? There’s lots of material for the parliamentary sketch-writers this morning after Gordon Brown PMQ response to David Cameron is which he said “We not only saved the world..” Typical is Quentin Letts in the Mail: “..Saved the world’, eh? The hubris! It is one thing for Downing Street spin meisters to spout such nonsense but when a Prime Minister starts to believe his own propaganda we’re in trouble..In those moments immediately after the…