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Category: General Election

Is politics down to the great mortgage divide?

Is politics down to the great mortgage divide?

Have the interest rate cuts been behind the Brown bounce? Starting with the usual caveat about not reading too much into poll subsets there is some quite interesting data from the latest Ipsos-MORI poll linking the tenure of respondents to their voting intention. From what I can see the firm only started providing this information in November so there is almost nothing we can compare current figures with. But what we see in the panel above is an enormous split…

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Is this what’s driven Labour’s recovery?

Is this what’s driven Labour’s recovery?

But what happens if optimism begins to wane? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been around for a long time and in many cases has been asking the same questions in the same way for getting on for three decades. One of those questions has been the firm’s “Economic Optimism Index” where polling respondents are asked “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse…

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Is this how an election campaign might look?

Is this how an election campaign might look?

What do we think of the Indy on Sunday’s mock ads? There’s a great piece in the Indy on Sunday about how a 2009 general election might look in terms of the ads that will be appearing on poster sites up and down the country. The paper asked half a dozen top advertising agencies to come up with some ideas and reproduced above are just three of the twelve that are featured in the article. I’m not sure how the…

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What if the polls turned against Gord again?

What if the polls turned against Gord again?

Could his replacement once again become an issue? One thing that we’ve learned about Gordon in the past eighteen months is that he thrives when things are going his way. Cast your mind back to his supreme confidence in the July – September 2007 period and just look at how he has been transformed in the past three months. But what if it starts to go wrong again? What if the couple of polls at the end of 2008 turn…

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Have high taxes become a recipe for a Labour disaster?

Have high taxes become a recipe for a Labour disaster?

What do we think of ComRes’s tax and spend findings? The main lead in the Independent this morning is based on the responses to what I believe is a novel form of polling from the latest ComRes survey in which the headline figures showed a Tory 5% lead. For the pollster then went on to ask a series of questions of how respondents would vote in a number of different scenarios and then reported the findings applying the same weighting…

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Why are punters unconvinced by the “Brown Bounce”?

Why are punters unconvinced by the “Brown Bounce”?

PB Balance of Money Index: CON majority 20 seats With possibly a YouGov and a ComRes survey still outstanding before we can draw the curtain on the 2008 polling season the apparent set-backs for the Tories are leaving spread betting punters relatively unmoved. The above table shows the overnight levels from which the PB Balance of Money Index is worked out – and as can be seen the mid-point spread on the Tories is at 335 seats – or ten…

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Is Gord benefitting from the recession upsides?

Is Gord benefitting from the recession upsides?

How key a factor is this in current poll ratings? We are told that 27,000 Woolworths staff are set to be losing their jobs in the New Year, UK car production is down by a third, unemployment is rising steeply and there’s even talk of a bail-out for the Indian-owned Jaguar cars. Meanwhile the pound continues to take a battering on the foreign exchange markets and businesses up and down the country struggle with their banks to get the support…

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Can you be opposition leader for too long?

Can you be opposition leader for too long?

Is he in danger of ending up like Kinnock? A couple of weeks ago, on December 6th, David Cameron celebrated his third year as leader of the Conservative party and leader of the opposition. It’s been quite a roller-coaster for him though his main achievement, even on current declining ratings for the Tories, has been to take the party through what appeared to be a concrete ceiling of support at 33%. But is the gloss starting to wear off a…

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