Could this be the main argument for 2009? If you look at the betting markets or read the pundits then the strong view is that with the huge polling set-backs of recent weeks Brown is not going to call a general election in the foreseeable future. A 2009 election is off the agenda. He’ll want to, the argument goes, give himself the maximum time for the economic crisis to sort itself out and in any case his October 2007 U-turn,…
Could he get accused of “talking Britain down”? The Guardian is reporting a speech by David Cameron to the Davos think-tank is which he raised the spectre of Britain having to go to the IMF in order to be kept afloat – something that last happened during the 1974-1979 Labour government. He’s quoted as saying:”…“If we continue on Labour’s path of fiscal irresponsibility, at some point – and it could be very soon – the money will run out,” Cameron…
Are columns like this turning the media narrative? There’s a must-read column in the Independent today, highlighted by Ted on the overnight thread, which seems to get to the heart of the political and economic challenges that are facing Britain. So much, Hamilton argues, is tied with the personality of the Prime Minister and his inability to admit uncertainty. Hamilton writes: “..His political dilemma is obvious enough. Having set himself up as the man in control, the leader with the…
The projection’s now only 8 seats below the summer peak Even though Labour’s opinion poll deficit is considerably better than many of the figures that we saw during June-September 2008 the consensus of opinion on the spread betting market is that there’ll be a Conservative majority of 48 seats. This is based on a Tory mid-point 349 seats and compares with the 353 that the numbers peaked at during the summer. (Every extra seat on the Tory total increases the…
How do they respond to 9 days of polling reverses? While all our eyes have been on Washington Labour is only just assimilating the series of huge poll reverses over the past nine days and the question must be asked – is there anything the party can do now to turn things round again. Just to recall: a week yesterday the Times Populus survey came out putting the Tories on 43% – upping the January deficit from 4 to 10…
Is Ken tasked with “bursting the Brown bubble”? I was very taken by a comment from a ConHome contributor, Jono, that the real reason why Clarke has been brought back is not to handle Mandelson – but to challenge Brown. This was picked up by ChritstinaD. Jono writes “..There is one pillar of the whole, painstakingly constructed edifice of the Brown myth that has always been vulnerable and that is the role of Ken Clarke in creating what was sustainable…
Has Cameron done the right thing? If BBC News has got this right and the story above is correct then Ken Clarke is about to return to the Shadow Cabinet and the first PB betting call of 2009 has come good. I’ve got a fair bit on at 6/4 and I hope others have too. The big question is how this is going to play politically and whether Cameron’s gamble is going to pay off. Clearly the leader needed a…
How supporters divide on the Middle East Reproduced above is a snippet from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times which I have clipped because it shows the different approaches that supporters of the three main parties are taking towards the current conflict in the Middle East. For when asked who should get the blame the overall result has 24% of British voters blaming Hamas with 18% saying Israel. The balance of the sample said “equally” or they “don’t know”….