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Category: General Election

Is this another sign that Labour’s power is ebbing away?

Is this another sign that Labour’s power is ebbing away?

Mail online Have the spinners lost control of the “official statistics”? There’s a big story running this morning about with the highly embarrassing news that the number of foreign workers increased by 175,000 to 2.4 million last year while the number of British workers fell by 234,000 to 27 million. To me what makes this interesting is not the jobs story but that what used to be the all-powerful Number 10 spin operation had no idea of what was coming…

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Is “Woolie’s Woman” the defining demographic?

Is “Woolie’s Woman” the defining demographic?

Cartoon first published on December 11 2008 Is “She” the shorthand for the end of NuLab? A key media development in the past eight weeks has been the regularity with which programmes makers and writers have looked to former Woolworths employees, almost all of them women, to illustrate what’s gone wrong with the economy. BBC2’s Newsnight did it again last night. So while “Mondeo Man” and “Worcester Woman” might have defined key voters in recent elections the 2009/2010 general version…

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Is this how the crisis gets linked to Number 10?

Is this how the crisis gets linked to Number 10?

How much was a key Brown advisor behind the HBOS fall? The appearance before the commons committee of the bank bosses and the story of the whistle-blower who tried to warn of the dangers of HBOS’s strategy get wide coverage this morning but it’s only really the Times and the Independent that highlight the political dangers to the government. For until now the main charge against the PM was that he was Chancellor during a critical decade when many of…

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Populus: the inter-party dynamics

Populus: the inter-party dynamics

Some numbers behind the headline figures The chart is taken from the detailed data in today’s Populus Poll for the Times and shows current voting intentions linked to what respondents said they did at the 2005 General Election. It focuses solely on those who voted last time – a segment that, surely, must be more likely to vote at the next general election than those, who for whatever reason, were non-voters. The Tories are retaining 97% of their 2005 vote…

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Is there any way back for Brown or Labour?

Is there any way back for Brown or Labour?

UKPollingReport Could the tide turn yet again? One of the lessons that we have learned in the past two years is that the most dangerous assumption you can make is that things will go on as they are. After what, with the benefit of hindsight, was a temporary blip in late November and December all the polls have turned and all are suggesting that Gordon Brown will lead Labour to defeat at the general election – now a maximum of…

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Labour drop into the 20s with Populus

Labour drop into the 20s with Populus

CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 28% (-5) LIB DEMS 18% (+3) ..and the LDs get a 3 point boost The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed – see the Times story here] So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s – further evidence that the Brown…

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Is this the polling that should shape party strategies?

Is this the polling that should shape party strategies?

Populus September 2008 What should we conclude from these numbers? The above poll questions on voter motivations are ones that are often included in the parties’ own private surveys but you don’t often see them in published polls. As far as I can see the last time the findings appeared was in the September 2008 Populus poll for the Times and my understanding is that more up-to-date private research suggests that the broad picture has not changed much. The big…

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Will Gord listen to Alan’s smart attack strategy?

Will Gord listen to Alan’s smart attack strategy?

Has Johnson found the way to deal with Dave? Gordon Brown has many qualities but one that is never ascribed to him is being “a good listener”. so I wonder what he’ll make of his health secretary’s comments during the weekend on the way Labour should deal with the Tory leader. For ever since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative in December 2005 the party has floundered as its tried to work out a way of dealing with…

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