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Category: General Election

“Labour doing better on a low turnout” – surely not?

“Labour doing better on a low turnout” – surely not?

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A new electoral dynamic or an error? One of the frustrations of yesterday’s public holiday in most of the UK was that the Ipsos-MORI offices were not open and we have yet to see the detail and the analysis of the August political monitor which featured in Sunday’s Observer. For there was an intriguing line in Gaby Hinsliff’s report that went against all the received opinion on voting behaviour – that Labour do better with higher turnouts. Her comment that…

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Could Gord pull off another conference coup?

Could Gord pull off another conference coup?

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Why I’m not risking any cash at the moment? Over the past four months I have studiously avoided the spread betting markets on the number of seats each of the parties will get at the next election – something that’s felt very strange because for years this has been my main betting arena. My Labour sell and Lib Dem buy contracts have been closed down at reasonable profits as I have waited to see how things look in for the…

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Labour back to the mid-20s with YouGov

Labour back to the mid-20s with YouGov

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CON 42 (nc) LAB 26 (-2) LD 18 (nc) So all the August polls are in the same territory Whether or not there’s a big effort at the Daily Telegraph to get us to buy printed copies of their paper I do not know but their August YouGov poll is now out and is not online. The figures are as above with the changes on the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the last from the pollster – in mid-August. Then…

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Could Jack Straw himself be behind these stories?

Could Jack Straw himself be behind these stories?

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Times How close will the Megrahi case get to Mr. Brown?? This is the key extract from this morning’s main lead in the Times that follows on from the leaked letter in yesterday’s Sunday Times. “Gordon Brown was dragged into the centre of the row over the early release of the Lockerbie bomber last night after it emerged that a key decision that could have paved the way for the terrorist to serve his sentence in Libya was approved by…

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What’s this going to do to the Megrahi debate?

What’s this going to do to the Megrahi debate?

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Sunday Times Was it a “murky” deal for oil after all? The main lead in the Sunday Times tomorrow looks set to take the Megrahi release debate into new territory for the paper says it has leaked ministerial letters suggesting this was all about an oil deal with Libya. This is how the story starts: “The British government decided it was “in the overwhelming interests of the United Kingdom” to make Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber, eligible for…

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Poll gloom for the SNP AND Gordon over Megrahi

Poll gloom for the SNP AND Gordon over Megrahi

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BBC News Scotland ICM suggests both have been damaged Only a few days ago I was bemoaning the fact that there did not seem to be any polls of Scottish opinion on the release of Megrahi – the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing and murder of 270 people. Well this evening we have a second with strong suggestions that there might be another one this weekend. The survey is by ICM for the BBC and is of 1,005 people…

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How much are tax-payers funding political parties already?

How much are tax-payers funding political parties already?

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BBC IPlayer Michael Crick’s programme is a must listen I’ve just picked up on BBC IPlayer this great Radio 4 investigation by Michael Crick on the funding of political parties and the rise of what he calls “The Political Club”. The programme blurb goes: “Michael Crick reveals how politicians are increasingly becoming a professionalised and separate class, who use their status to channel taxpayers’ money into the coffers of their parties. The recent scandal over MPs’ expenses has revealed how…

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Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?

Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?

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Could the tactical switchers of ’97 now go straight to the Tories? One of aspects of the electorate that both the YouGov Scottish poll and this week’s GB survey from Angus-Reid have shown is the very distinctive approach to the Lockerbie bomber release by Lib Dem voters. This is symptomatic I believe of their approach to politics generally and why what they think and do at elections can have a disproportionate impact at general elections. We saw that in 1997…

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