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Category: General Election

Following the voters most likely to switch at the general election – those who went Lib Dem in 2010

Following the voters most likely to switch at the general election – those who went Lib Dem in 2010

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Tracking 2010 Lib Dem voters – the ones most likely to move. Chart showing their views of Dave & Ed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012 Today marks the start of a new project on the site – keeping a close eye on those voters most likely to switch at the general election, the 2010 Lib Dems. My intention is to track and highlight relevant polling data for the group because they probably hold the key to the…

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The LAB lead in first telephone poll the month down to 9 percent

The LAB lead in first telephone poll the month down to 9 percent

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Today’s phone poll from Ipsos-MORI – pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2012 UKIP up 4 to 7 percent The first phone poll for December, the monthly political monitor from Ipsos-MORI, is out in the Evening Standard. The charts above shows the voting intention split. On leader satisfaction Cameron is down from 40 to 37% since while Ed Miliband is at 40%. Nick Clegg is trailing on 27. The UKIP share in November recorded by the firm…

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The working families tax credit cap: Has Osborne “strapped himself to a Gordon Brown booby trap”?

The working families tax credit cap: Has Osborne “strapped himself to a Gordon Brown booby trap”?

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LAB says that numbers hit working families benefits cap exceeds CON majorities in key marginals guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2012 @msmithsonpb Brown put working people Tories need for a majority on Tax credits. Osbornes strapped himself to another Brown booby trap. — David Morton (@DavidMorton359) December 12, 2012 In an interesting move overnight Labour has published HMRC data showing the precise number of working families in key CON-held marginals who will be affected by the Chancellor’s…

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UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

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UKIP get to within 10 points of the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll. see detail twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 Farage’s party now double the LD share It’s hard to know what to make of this afternoon’s poll from TNS-BMRB which has the most sensational polling figures of any survey since the general election. UKIP appear to be the main beneficiary from Tory’ woes as they pick up another 4% to rise to 16%. UKIP have now…

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54684. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The above is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies last time. There is a difference –…

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No overall majority becomes joint favourite with a LAB majority on Betfair’s general election market

No overall majority becomes joint favourite with a LAB majority on Betfair’s general election market

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A LAB majority no longer the favourite on Betfair’s General Election market. Data based on latest matched bets twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 LAB slips out of the top slot The above show the latest prices matched on the three main options on Betfair’s general election markets. This marks something of a change because over the past few months Labour has been favourite with the price reaching a 41%. Note that I am converting Betfair decmimal odds…

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Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

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Pie chart showing today’s YouGov poll which has CON just one off its lowest level with pollster twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Today’s YouGov poll has the Tories down at 30% – just one point above their lowest level yet with the firm and 14% behind Labour. Although it is always dangerous reading too much into one single daily poll this latest finding means that the Labour lead has been at 12 or more in five out…

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Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

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The latest PaddyPower general election outcome prices bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill  that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1. I can’t see…

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