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Category: General Election

CON up 5 – Ukip down 4 percent in new ComRes online poll

CON up 5 – Ukip down 4 percent in new ComRes online poll

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ComRes online for Indy on Snday/S Mirror: CON 33 +5 LAB 39 nc LD 11+2 Ukip 10-4.Details –www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55948 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 Is Dave’s IN-OUT strategy starting to work? The general rule, when you see changes like the UKIP drop, is to wait for other pollsters to see if they follow the same trend. Amongst other findings in the poll from ComRes for tomorrow Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror.   Cameron versus Miliband David…

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Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

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David Herdson says that Cameron cannot go on avoiding the key EU questions www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55937 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 He can’t go on dodging the question? David Cameron’s speech on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has certainly set the political agenda for the week. Almost as soon as he made it, however, two questions were asked that will dog him if he continues to answer as he did at the time: what specifically do you…

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EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

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How the millions of Lib Dem to LAB switchers have made Miiband’s party’s supporter base more pro-EU. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Henry G Manson: Marginal voters matters more This week’s stance taken by Labour on the EU caused some surprise among one or two folk. The Guardian reported that some Labour MPs were twitchy about it. Many of them had tactical concerns that Labour would appear that it was effectively not trusting the public. That is…

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LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

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LAB lead 12% in first post Cameron EU speech daily poll CON 31(nc): LAB 43(+2): LD 11(-1):Ukip 10(nc). twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 We need to wait till weekend before getting proper picture If YouGov were following their usual pattern fieldwork would have started at 5pm on Tuesday evening and continued until 5pm yesterday. We do not know what proportion of the sample was before and afterwards and whether there was any difference in the response pattern….

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Miliband might regret ruling out a referendum

Miliband might regret ruling out a referendum

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Leaving himself without any wiggle room on having a referendum might be something that EdM comes to regret twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 For Labour not to have a clear line on a speech that has been 12,000 years in the making actually beggars belief. — Janan Ganesh (@JananGanesh) January 23, 2013 He should have left himself with some wiggle-room Having watched the exchange several times I think that EdM might not have been planning to make…

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In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

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Where does today’s Dave speech leave Farage? What about Ukip’s polling position? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 What happens to Ukip post-Dave speech? There can be little doubt that the rise of Ukip in the polls has played a big part in Dave’s referendum decision. The blue hope must be that some of those CON 2010 voters who’ve shifted will start to return. If that happens then Ukip could see a decline in its poll ratings. Is…

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The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

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Michael Ashcroft says the more they talk about EU the less likely the Tories have got of a Gen Elect victory twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 Is he right about the dangers for his party? This is from his blog – Lord Ashcroft polls:- “..As I found in my research published last month, Europe is not much of a priority even for those who say they might vote UKIP; the EU is just one of the (many)…

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Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

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Cameron’s offer an in/out referendum in 2017/18 could be the defining point of his premiership news.sky.com/story/1041580/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 The key factor is that the Tories will appear unified Whether the offer of an EU in/out referendum in 3-4 years becomes the policy that provides the platform for the Tories to win an overall majority I do not know but I believe today’s big speech will lead to a polling boost to the blues. The…

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