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Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

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A new Ashcroft megapoll with 20,022 sample finds that more people want another coalition than a CON maj. LAB maj top. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Precisely 26 months till the GE2015 results start coming in In exactly two years and two months on another Friday morning many of us will have been up all night watching the results of GE2015 come in. Will we be seeing the LAB majority that almost all surveys since Osborne’s March…

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Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

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LAB #GE2015 targets numbers 1 – 25 from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 With polls as they are this looks an easy task This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team. If this is all they won and…

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EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

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A danger for LAB in upping the rhetoric on immigration? Chart showing views on issue broken down by #GE2010 vote. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2013 The current LAB panic over Ukip might be counter-productive A main reason why Labour is consistently showing poll leads over the Tories is that the party has attracted so many Lib Dem 2010 voters. If EdM & co are to win back power in 2015 then this segment of the electorate has…

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The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

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Many of CON seats at risk are in the shire counties The top 20 most vulnerable CON seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/cons… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 The top 20 most vunerable LD seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libd… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Notice the very different pattern with LAB seats The top 20 most vulnerable LAB seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013

General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh #GE2010 result showing comparison on 2005. Note the huge squeeze on the LAB vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2013 How a huge LAB>LD tactical switch thwarted CON hopes On May 6th 2010 the Tories made an overall total 100 gains yet still, as we all know, fell short of an overall majority. A reason for that was what happened in seats like Eastleigh which in terms of the votes required for victory was number 12 on…

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After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

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Today’s YouGov poll for the S Times paints a very different picture of opinion than last night’s ComRes online. See – twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Which is right YouGov or ComRes online revised? ComRes in its online form only started polling after GE2010 and as such is untested at a general election. Last night we saw the latest for the IoS and Sunday Mirror with extraordinary numbers showing a quarter of the sample saying they were…

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So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

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So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote? Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries. There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to…

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If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

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Pie chart with today’s YouGov shares showing changes on the national GB figures from #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%. Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required. The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the…

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