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Category: General Election

Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015

Exactly two years to the day after the AV referendum this is how Rallings and Thrasher project GE2015

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The chart is based on Rallings & Thrasher data for today’s Sunday Times which has the pair’s own national equivalent vote share projections based on their detailed analysis of the outcome on Thursday. This has CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22% The numbers are different from the one’s published on Friday by the BBC and SkyNews because they are based on a different calculation. Two things stand out: the harsh fact for Ukip that by having a vote…

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The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

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But should UKIP have done even better? Thursday’s elections represented a resounding raspberry to all three main parties.  Indeed, they reinforced that even talking of three main parties is an anachronism.  The Lib Dems did win more than twice as many councillors as UKIP but in all other respects they finished well behind.  In the South Shields by-election, UKIP scored another second place (their fourth in the last five mainland contests) and in the local elections, Nigel Farage’s party came…

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The challenge for GE2015 – Appealing to current Ukip supporters and 2010 LDs at the same time

The challenge for GE2015 – Appealing to current Ukip supporters and 2010 LDs at the same time

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There are two key cohorts of potential swing voters at GE2015 – those who are now saying they will vote UKIP and those who supported the LDs in 2010. The interactive chart above shows how these two switching groups have very different views on the main issues facing the country. For the Tories the main challenge is to win back those now saying Ukip while, at the same time, hoping that in the key LAB-CON marginals they will be defending…

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If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?

If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?

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Some interesting cross-tabs in these YouGov findings Interesting cross-breaks to YouGov question on who you’d vote for if CON/LAB/LD/UKIPhad chance in your seat twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2013 I posted the above clip from today’s YouGov dataset earlier on Twitter and it led to an interesting discussion on Twitter. This would have been posted here earlier but for the woeful inadeqacies of EE mobile broadband which is as crap as Vodafone. Mike Smithson For the latest polling…

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David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

David Herdson says the LDs will not be able to avoid addressing the GE2015 Mandate question

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If the circumstances required would they go with the winner on votes or seats? Prior to the last general election, Nick Clegg stated that in the event of a hung parliament, “the party which has got the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern … the votes of the British people are what should determine what happens afterwards.  Whichever party have the strongest mandate from the British people … have the first…

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The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority – your interactive checker

The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority – your interactive checker

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The above is based on data from Professor John Curtice on what vote leads LAB and CON require to put them over the threshold of 326 to win an overall majority at GE2015. This is, of course, calculated on a uniform national swing (UNS) in each GB seat. At GE2010 the Tories over-performed UNS by a bit. For the Tories more than LAB, click the tab on the chart, the LD share is critical. At a 10% yellow share the…

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A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

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40% of UKIP voters prefer a CON majority Today’s YouGov poll sees an MOE change with LAB is increasing its lead over the Tories by 1%.Nothing much there except that once again EdM’s party is in single figures. Using the interactive chart above you can see how each set of party supporters responded and one that stands out for me is the Ukip split with 40% saying they’d prefer a CON majority. That still, however, leaves 60% not saying that….

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REMINDER: The CON poll deficit maybe getting smaller but they need to be well ahead on votes just to be level-pegging on seats

REMINDER: The CON poll deficit maybe getting smaller but they need to be well ahead on votes just to be level-pegging on seats

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General Election May 6th 2010 CON LAB Average electorate of seats won 72,435 68,612 Average turnout in seats won 68.4% 61.1% Average total votes in seat won 49,436 41,842 Seats won with small majorities 60 81 Votes in seats where party was third 28.4% 16.6% Much of the so-called bias is down to different voting patterns Yet again this morning the YouGov daily snapshot has the LAB lead at 7% adding further to a mood of confidence in parts of…

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