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Category: General Election

If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement

If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement

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I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013 Coalition breakup = Early general election The main story in the Times this morning is a report that…

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Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

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Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%. That is 3% below what the Tories achieved…

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The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

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This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote. The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow. It has been observed in past elections that…

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LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

LAB lead down to just 3 percent with Ipsos-MORI

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The Ipsos-MORI voting figures showing LAB with bigger lead amongst all who had voting preference.Ukip on 11% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 Update – the latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings Latest leader ratings from Ipsos-MORI with Farage out scoring all. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

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Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question. Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option…

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The rise of Ukip and CON backing for same sex marriage: Is it more than a coincidence?

The rise of Ukip and CON backing for same sex marriage: Is it more than a coincidence?

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Just look at how 2010 CON voters view the same sex marriage issue compared with those who now say they are voting for the party. The first group show by 53% to 39% that they are against. Compare that on the drop down menu in the chart above with current CON voters. They are in favour by 48% to 41%. Look also at the emphatic opposition from current UKIP voters. The poll also shows how 24% of those who voted…

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Miliband rules out an EU referendum promise: A strategic mistake or a correct reading of the public mood?

Miliband rules out an EU referendum promise: A strategic mistake or a correct reading of the public mood?

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No EU referendum from Lab – EdM making this the big divider for GE2015. goo.gl/xFQSK twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2013 Osborne’s biographer, the, FT’s Janan Ganesh thinks that EdM has this right? Tories convinced EdM’s non-offer of referendum will hurt him. If they knew how little ppl care about Europe, their world would fall apart. — Janan Ganesh (@JananGanesh) May 11, 2013 The latest issues polling from Ipsos-MORI Miliband might be right on the salience of the…

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