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Category: General Election

The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

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Just 18% tell YouGov that it is acceptable for Crosby to be advising Tories while working for commercial clients pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 Just 19% tell tell YouGov that last LAB government most to blame for NHS failings found in Keighley report pic.twitter.com/6rotB8qxKu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 YouGov party trusted to deal with NHS CON 19 LAB 29 LD 5 None of them 35 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 And today’s YouGov voting figures Latest…

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Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

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Latest Betfair GE2015 overall majority betting based on last trades pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013 But Ed is odds-on favourite to be next PM Ed Miliband 54.5% favourite on Betfair for next PM based on last trade See top 8 pic.twitter.com/UDouJXYYr6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

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Local factors could mean they’ll be as hard to shift as ever The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour.  By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from Con…

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Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

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New Populus online poll has LAB lead up to 8 CON 31%(nc) LAB 39%(+1) LD 12%(-1) UKIP 10%(nc) Changes are on Monday's poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2013 In the red camp the most important objective is retaining 2010 LDs A couple of months ago I had an interesting dialogue with one of Labour top strategists who set out the four battlegrounds which they thought would decide GE2015. Surprisingly the least important to him was the fight with the Tories. The second didn’t…

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The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

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Only EdM’s personal ratings should give LAB cause for concern It’s parliamentary recess time. The 2012-2013 political season is over only to return in early September and then into the conference season which for whatever reason kicks off a week earlier than usual. The final days have been accopmanied by a concentration of polling on a level that we usually only see at general election time. I’ve updated my current polling chart to feature all of them. The most signifcant…

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British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

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Lynton Crosby – the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Is his Oz template right for Britain? Whatever you might think of him the great contribution Oz campaigning “guru” Lynton Crosby has made to the current political scene has been to give the Tory party and particularly its MPs their confidence back. That is no mean feat. In recent weeks he is said to…

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Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

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Does “party ID” weighting understate UKIP? Yesterday I posted a couple of Tweets about the impact on the party ID weighting in the new online Populus poll which has just been launched. Instead of sticking with its traditional past vote weighting approach the firm had adopted party ID weightings based back to what was recorded in British Social Attitudes Survey of 2010, when, of course, UKIP support was much lower than it is today. The effect is quite marked as…

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Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB

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UKIP down 5 to 7% The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7% CON the beneficiary — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 The ICM poll which has CON & LAB level is the best for the party since just before Osbo's March 2012 budget. Then CON was 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2013 Six polls in just two days