The “ever so stable poll” ain’t any longer Above in the chart are the figures for today’s Populus online poll which show a big change on Monday’s survey. As can be seen the Tories are down 5 and UKIP up 4. I asked the firm whether there have been any weighting or other methodological changes which might explain such a big shift in such a short period of time. The response I got from Rick Nye is below:- “No. But…
Look how the industry has declined How the circulations of national newspapers have declined since GE2010 See table pic.twitter.com/4FTguIS1Ld — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2013 The ground war is going to matter much more than the air war We spend a lot of time on PB trying to assess the impact of specific developments or stories on voting behaviour. One factor that we should bear in mind is that the national media is in a sharp decline. For every five…
The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP…
The Tories surge as the UKIP decline continues The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery. The figures and changes on last month are in the chart above. A 4% increase is outside the margin of error which suggests that real movement had taken place. The poll is not that far off the 36-36 ICM survey a…
Overall majority CON majority slips back & no overall majority gets tighter on Betfair GE2015 outcome market pic.twitter.com/XDdtvQMYDj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013
Meanwhile nearly 2 in 3 CON members believe that Dave can hang on Remember that July 5 years ago when the betting was on a CON landslide At this precise point ahead of GE2015 in Jul 2008 William Hills made it a 40% chance that CON would win a 100+ majority The bet was a loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013
The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010 There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats…
All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…