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Category: General Election

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

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What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…

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YouGov’s preferred GE2015 outcome tracker sees sharp increase in those wanting coalition

YouGov’s preferred GE2015 outcome tracker sees sharp increase in those wanting coalition

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Two weeks ago it was 20% – now 26% Boost for Ed in YouGov’s best PM rating EdM sees 5% increase in his YouGov Best PM rating – though still behind Dave. Was 21% now 26% Dave 35% from 34% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2013 As reported overnight LAB YouGov lead up to 9% YouGov poll for Sun sees LAB take 9% lead CON 32% LAB 41% LD 8% UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2013

Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict

Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict

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Latest from Betfair GE2015 outcome market – prices based on last trades expressed as %ages pic.twitter.com/ZkwFFuPEsc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2013 Only a few hours before the first post-speech poll Within the next few hours we should get the first full voting intention poll to have been carried out entirely after EdM’s big Brighton speech. Let’s hope that the Sun releases its YouGov survey this side of midnight rather than us having to wait until the morning. On…

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Damian McBride says he doesn’t think his revelations will have any electoral impact. I think that he’s right

Damian McBride says he doesn’t think his revelations will have any electoral impact. I think that he’s right

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But it could have done just if published in April 2015 The biggest political impact of the McBride book and now TV interviews is that they will reduce media coverage of the current Labour conference. Some of the messages that EdM and his team were hoping to get across will be over-shadowed. That might depress the short-term polling impact that Labour could have expected from its conference but really that will be as far as it goes. One of the…

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Fewer don’t knows and a greater certainty to vote give the LDs a 3 percent post-conference boost

Fewer don’t knows and a greater certainty to vote give the LDs a 3 percent post-conference boost

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The Monday Populus online poll it out and shows CON, LAB and UKIP unchanged with the Lib Dems moving up from 11% to 14% Looking at the detail and comparing it with other recent polls from the firm most of the movement for the LDs is as a result of fewer GE2010 voters who were saying don’t know now saying they are voting for Clegg’s party. There is also a greater certainty to vote. All this is fairly normal for…

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It is time that polling was more bottom up rather than top down

It is time that polling was more bottom up rather than top down

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We don’t vote for parties or leaders. We vote for individual MPs The 2013/14 political season is now into its third week and from a poll watcher’s point of view there have been a couple of really good innovations which I think will help the process of election forecasting. I really like the new ComRes question about which party voters think will make them better off. It’s that perception, I’d argue, rather than which is seen as “best on the…

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The great polling divide: CON wins on big broad themes but when it gets personal LAB ahead

The great polling divide: CON wins on big broad themes but when it gets personal LAB ahead

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Ipsos-MORI find the Tories a best party on economy, crime and immigration. See chart pic.twitter.com/5fdpKbm6xr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 LAB wins on areas that directly affect people LAB seen as best party on education, health care, unemployment and housing. See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/Gy7HuI9fKW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 As ComRes found people think they’d be better off under LAB Latest YouGov sees LAB lead at 4 LAB lead at 4% in today's YouGov for Sunday…

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UPDATED: CON down in 20s with both ComRes and Opinium

UPDATED: CON down in 20s with both ComRes and Opinium

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LAB extends lead with Opinium Other points from ComRes I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 23% (+8 since March 2012) Disagree 50% (-9) I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 28% (-1) Disagree 49% (0) I would expect my family to be better off than it is now if the Conservatives win the next election Agree 22% Disagree 47% I would…

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