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Category: General Election

If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will only make UKIP supporters feel more alienated

If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will only make UKIP supporters feel more alienated

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It could make UKIP waverers more determined to vote We now have progress with leaders TV debates for GE2015 with Sky proposing three sessions and fortnightly intervals starting on April 2nd 2015. The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party. It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling…

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David is showing signs of beating Goliath

David is showing signs of beating Goliath

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Henry G Manson’s Friday column Perhaps the most enduring part of Ed Miliband’s conference speech 10 day ago wasn’t the energy policy he outlined, but his charge against David Cameron. The Prime Minister was “strong at standing up to the weak, but weak at standing up to the strong.” In that one sentence the Labour leader was able to neatly bundle everything anxiety about the Tories, from being too close to News International, siding with the richest earners to cut…

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12 days ago Opinium found more CON voters than LAB ones saying their party would win

12 days ago Opinium found more CON voters than LAB ones saying their party would win

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Would it be the same today? As we’ve go into the last day of conference season 2013 one thing’s for sure, the political world does looks different from early September when the Lib Dems gathered in Glasgow. There was fairly sober but surprisingly upbeat LD conference; the UKIP one not shaping up quite as Farage planned; the drama of EdM’s speech and his commitment on energy prices; and of course the current Tory event which has been somewhat overshadowed by…

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YouGov had a biggish LAB conference bounce – Populus online and now ComRes phone don’t

YouGov had a biggish LAB conference bounce – Populus online and now ComRes phone don’t

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Tories close the gap to 4 with ComRes phone Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent has the Tories up 2% closing the gap with LAB to just 4%. This is near the two Populus polls on Friday and today which had 3% margins. The only other pollster to have reported since EdM’s big speech, YouGov, had LAB on 42% a full 11% ahead of the Tories. In situation like this it is hard to say which is right and…

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Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Chart from @YouGov showing which groups in society Tories are seen as being close to Big challenges there See pic.twitter.com/ooPlgBzdbK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 New Populus online poll has Lab 39 (+2) Cons 36 (+2) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 7 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 Look at the unweighted/weighted contrast from Populus

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

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The monthly Electoral Calculus general election projection is out and as can be seen from the chart LAB is given a 79% chance of an overall majority. In seat terms Electoral Calculus is projecting a LAB majority of 80 which is seven up on a month ago. The seat breakdown is CON 231 (-76): LAB 365 (+107): LD 23 (-34): SNP/PC 12 (+3): UKIP 0 (=) The key part of the Electoral Calculus approach is the assumption of a universal…

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LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

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EdM gets an 8% personal ratings boost The chart shows the latest polling numbers from YouGov with changes on the firm’s last survey for the Sunday Times a week ago. The big thing is not the lead but the movement by 5% in the Labour share. This is a big conference bounce – the question is whether it can be sustained. If these numbers were repeated at a general election LAB would have a very comfortable majority. The poll finds…

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