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Category: General Election

How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

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Following on from this morning’s post on the importance of 2010 Lib Dems to Labour’s current polling I’ve now been looking at policy areas to see how this crucial group of potential swing voters view the blues and the reds. Quite simply I’ve taken the LD 2010 responses from this week’s YouGov “which political party you think would handle XXXX best?” findings and divided the total saying CON by those saying LAB. The results are in the chart above. As…

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As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

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The Autumn Statement did nothing to budge them We are now within 17 months of the election and the overall situation remains the same. Even if all the 2010 CON voters who’ve moved to LAB returned it would make very little difference to Labour’s majority winning vote share. Those 2010 LD switchers remain. This is the first full parliament where we’ve been able to track voter segments by past vote because the pollsters didn’t start giving us this information until…

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The David Cameron paradox: His “little black book” could form both the CON and LD manifestos

The David Cameron paradox: His “little black book” could form both the CON and LD manifestos

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In an interview with Speccie editor, Fraser Nelson David Cameron gives an interesting insight into how his party will present itself at GE2015 “..The coalition is still strong and radical, he says, ‘but because of what I see as the problems facing Britain — and what I want to do next as Prime Minister — I feel very passionately that I want single party government’. It’s strange, I say, he doesn’t come across as a man held captive by the…

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ICM’s phone poll for December sees CON get 3 pc closer

ICM’s phone poll for December sees CON get 3 pc closer

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Women less likely to think there’s a recovery than men ICM gender divide on the recovery Men say by 57% to 38%, that recovery is under way Women say by 46% to 44% that it isn't — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2013 Two Eds still trailing as best to manage economy ICM finds 39% backing Dave/George to handle the economy best, compared with just 23% who side with Two Eds. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2013 Regional divide on…

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First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

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Top phone pollster, ICM, due out tonight Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%. Today we’ve got the first Populus online poll and that, as the chart shows, has things moving in the opposite direction. Tonight I’m hoping for the first phone poll – ICM for the Guardian and later in the week we should have Ipsos-MORI. There’s…

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Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

Farage says that in many seats at GE2015 only UKIP will be able to beat Labour

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pic.twitter.com/lFI1YuYqwM — PolPics (@PolPics) December 9, 2013 Dealing with the “Wasted vote” syndrome In the Independent this morning Nigel Farage seeks to deal with what will be a big negative for his party at GE2015 – the notion that a vote for UKIP is a wasted vote and could let Ed Miliband in. There’s little doubt that this perception is widespread and will be used strongly by the Tories in May 2015 to undermine the purples and seek to bring…

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ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

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Paul Goodman of ConHome reports today on the latest survey of how Conservative party members assess their chances for the next general election. The totals in the chart above aggregate those expecting a majority (now 20%), those expecting a CON minority government (19%) and those who think that there’ll be another coalition (16%). Interestingly the 20% CON majority segment is quite close to the latest trades on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The chart tracks very much the percieved impact…

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Osborne could have a branding problem that would make him an electoral liability

Osborne could have a branding problem that would make him an electoral liability

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pic.twitter.com/Wv1pnN50y8 — PolPics (@PolPics) December 7, 2013 Voters turn against when told that a plan has his backing Yesterday’s Ipsos-MORI poll on the Autumn Statement raises an issue that could be troublesome for the Tories as they head into the general election – a branding problem when George Osborne is involved. Back in March the firm asked people to choose between two statements about the best way to deal with Britain’s economic difficulties – either tackling the national debt or…

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