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Category: General Election

Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

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Punters on the Betfair exchange now giving the Tories a 23.8% chance of an overall majority. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/MJoqFqQf7r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2013 The Betfair 23.8% chance is a ludicrous over-assessment The latest trade in Betfair’s GE2015 outcome market has a CON majority rated as 23.8% chance. There must be a lot of blue supporters out there betting with their hearts not their heads – always a good opportunity for smart political punters. Let’s get this…

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The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

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UPDATE – But LAB YouGov leads jumps 6 to 8% YouGov/Sun poll LAB lead jumps from 2% yesterday to 8% tonight CON 33%-3 LAB 41%+3 LD 8%= UKIP 13%+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2013 So no autumn statement boost with ComRes phone There’s the December phone poll from ComRes for the Indy just out and the figures are almost exactly the same as in November. Only shift is that UKIP are down 1. The firm’s phone polls clearly use a different methodology…

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Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

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Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder. Just like Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample phone polling of the marginals in September Survation find that the Tory position in the seats is worse than in national polling where we are seeing a 6-7% CON>LAB swing. The chart above shows moves much bigger than that in each…

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The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

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The latest round of Survation constituency polls should give us an idea where Farage will stand PaddyPower betting pic.twitter.com/CwghokJpBE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2013 I’m expecting 4 single-seat polls tonight all funded by the UKIP donor, Alan Bown. My guess is that Farage will opt for one of the Kent seats where he has roots. We had a Thanet South poll three weeks back which looked promising for him. Maybe one of the latest batch of polls will tell…

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The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

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How polling leads can just evaporate The chart shows the sequence of YouGov Holyrood regional vote shares for LAB and SNP in the eleven weeks running up to the May 2011 elections. The movement is startling and even YouGov’s eve of poll survey, with an SNP lead of just 7% was a long way out. The actual SNP lead was 18%. This is a timely reminder for both GE2015 polling and, of course, the Scottish IndyRef, just nine months away….

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Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

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Unlike all the other pollsters that have reported this week tonight’s online surveys from Opinium for the Observer and ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror have the LAB lead steady or up a notch. This compares with the latest ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus online and YouGov surveys which have had Labour down a notch though all changes within the margin or error. Essentially we are where we were with LAB sort of holding steady but not with as comfortable a…

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Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing contrast between the all naming a party and those 100% certain to vote pic.twitter.com/ksFSvlSpv2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 EdM the only leader with declining satisfaction ratings Chart showing latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings which are widely regarded as the gold standard pic.twitter.com/5JoSZjsGF2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Once again EdM struggling to maintain confide of LAB voters See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/yvw4Yu1wKi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Economic optimism still strong…

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Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

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The coalition parties are losing the least Survation have got a poll out for Lodesetone showing the party choices of non-voters. The figures are in the chart above and as can be seen nearly a third of the non-voters said Labour. The main point of the poll is to show what would happen if turnout levels could be increased. So Labour seem to be the party that’s losing most from this untapped source of support with the Lib Dems losing…

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