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Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

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The latest YouGov/Sun daily poll, published last night, has LAB 38/CON 35/LD 10/UKIP 11 – so a continuation of what we’ve been seeing all week. For my chart above I’ve calculated a provisional weekly average based on the first 3 polls and as is clear there is a narrowing. The question is whether this is down to normal margin or error, which it could well be, or are we seeing real change? We should get another YouGov tonight and, of…

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Suddenly what’s emerging as the key issue facing voters is not one where the Tories or Labour are setting the agenda

Suddenly what’s emerging as the key issue facing voters is not one where the Tories or Labour are setting the agenda

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January @IpsosMORI Issues Index out & immigration now jt 1st with economy See pic.twitter.com/OVbmvJitFi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2014 In Jan 2013 concern about economy was 30% pts higher than immigration – gap now closed http://t.co/csa4Xt3KDq pic.twitter.com/F8k2SR8dWu — Bobby Duffy (@BobbyIpsosMORI) January 28, 2014 Women less concerned about immigration than men. See concern levels for different groups in this @IpsosMORI chart pic.twitter.com/V7VG7wpMw9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2014 Declining concerns about the economy take away a blue strong-point…

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YouGov, like Survation at the weekend, finds 61 percent back raising the tax rate for high earners to 50p

YouGov, like Survation at the weekend, finds 61 percent back raising the tax rate for high earners to 50p

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But YouGov finds more people are opposed We’ve now got the second poll on the Ed Balls tax plan announced on Saturday. It’s from YouGov for today’s Times and finds 61% to 26% against. The detail hasn’t been published yes but the paper reports that LAB voters are overwhelmingly supportive, while 52% cent of CON supporters are opposed.45% think the move would help the economy, 19% say it would cause damage. Labour will be pleased that this key policy continues…

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Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

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And YouGov has lead down to 2% The monthly ComRes/Indy survey is one of just three monthly national polls remaining which use the telephone and its publication, usually at the end of the month, is always an occasion. The latest party shares with changes on December are in the chart above and as can be seen the big move has been LAB down 4 while UKIP has gone up by the same amount. The result is that Miliband’s party now…

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The battle over Labour’s planned 50 percent tax rate: Day 3

The battle over Labour’s planned 50 percent tax rate: Day 3

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http://t.co/pBkzxMviTW pic.twitter.com/uaMWjpAiOY — PolPics (@PolPics) January 27, 2014 I’ve just been on Radio 4’s the World at One talking about the polling on the 50% tax rate and Labour on the economy. I’ll post a link when it become avaiable. The Tory attacks have been long and strong and, no doubt, this will be one of the big battles at GE2015 but just how important is managing the economy? To my mind this from the recent Lord Ashcroft poll sets…

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Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable

Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable

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Check out the interactive chart Each week, as we know, YouGov carries out four polls for the Sun and one for its News International stable-mate, the Sunday Times. The result is a mass of polling data that sometimes it is hard to see the big picture. This is the reaon why over the past few weeks I have been producing a weekly average of the party shares YouGov daily polls in order that this might be a good way of…

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It couldn’t happen, could it? PM Farage

It couldn’t happen, could it? PM Farage

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Farage Number 10? pic.twitter.com/NF05OOYWVL — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 David Herdson on a nightmare or a dream The toothy beaming smile said it all.  The new prime minister stood on the steps of Downing Street and waved to nobody in particular but it was what the assembled media wanted anyway.  They were as stunned at the result as everyone else.  True, the polls a few days before had been predicting it but no-one really believed them did they?  Polls…

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The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

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The evidence suggests that it’s working the other way round It’s been repeated often enough on PB that an essential part of Labour’s polling position is based on the very large proportion of 2010 LD voters who’ve now switched to Labour. If this hadn’t happened or starts to slip away then EdM’s dreams of becoming PM are in trouble. So far, at least, the evidence is that such a move that is even more pronounced in the key LAB-CON marginals…

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