Browsed by
Category: General Election

Populus change their much criticised party ID weightings which should see much bigger UKIP shares

Populus change their much criticised party ID weightings which should see much bigger UKIP shares

Comments 0 Comment

New Populus poll with new methodology that gives big boost to UKIP Lab 36 Cons 33 LD 9 UKIP 15; — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls say their new methodology will boost UKIP and see declines for LAB & LDs. Tories should stay the same. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls has been sharply criticised about its former party ID weighting model. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 The new weightings – see how they shift…

Read More Read More

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

Comments 0 Comment

From the latest Ashcroft mega-poll We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples. Lord Ashcroft gets round this by using very large samples with the result that for poll watchers like me his detailed data can provide good insights and pointers. Clearly the top two, UKIP and LAB, have seen the most new support coming to them and are probably…

Read More Read More

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

Comments 0 Comment

The trend over the past few years New analysis from @IpsosMORI shows CON voters now less certain to vote than LAB ones. http://t.co/WbBIclp73V Chart pic.twitter.com/wcbQPw6nTi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 How higher certainty levels boosted LAB in this poll Ipsos-MORI Jan 2014 Political Monitor pic.twitter.com/PYmcnHH54B — PolPics (@PolPics) February 5, 2014 There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones. This…

Read More Read More

At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

At GE2010 the Tories had a lead amongst teachers. Now the Tories are 41 pc behind

Comments 0 Comment

How LAB moved from a 1% deficit to a 41% lead Given the very public row that’s been going on over Mr Michael Gove I’ve dug out some comparative data on the voting intentions of teachers and the big changes in the way this key segment of the electorate will vote. In MARCH 2010 YouGov found teachers splitting CON 33: LAB 32: LD 27: UKIP 3. In the latest polling of the same segment published last month it is CON…

Read More Read More

Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

Comments 0 Comment

Latest Electoral Calculus projection for GE2015 http://t.co/4VTCVNQT7t pic.twitter.com/EY46vABkQD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 This is the commentary by Martin Baxters who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades: “Most pollsters measured a small decrease in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in January. But they also showed an increase in both the smaller parties’ vote, at the expense of themajor parties. However the pollsters are relatively divided about UKIP. One group (Opinium, ComRes and Survation) see a high…

Read More Read More

All the weekend polls: Round up

All the weekend polls: Round up

Comments 0 Comment

Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Comments 0 Comment

http://t.co/be72pAqDpA pic.twitter.com/tHqRYZhs3t — PolPics (@PolPics) January 31, 2014 My 4/1 bet that LAB wins most seats but CON gets most votes Yesterday I placed a bet at 4/1 with PaddyPower that LAB will win most seats at GE2015 but will trail the Tories on national vote share. What makes this a value bet is because the vote share window when this could happen is much larger than the commons seat calculators suggest. Look at the uniform national projection above from…

Read More Read More

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 30, 2014 That was almost the polling week that was We’ve now got to Friday in what has been a dramatic polling week and the chart above shows what’s happened to the five times a week YouGov “daily polls”. After three surveys which really looked as though Labour’s lead had narrowed we’ve now got Miliband’s party in…

Read More Read More