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Category: General Election

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

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This could have an impact on May 7th 2015 The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data. One I’ve been looking at overnight is the proportion of non-voters from last time amongst the current support bases. I went into this thinking that UKIP would have the most. In…

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Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

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Last trade on LAB majority on Betfair = 40% Chances of LAB majority edges to 40% on Betfair for first time since June 2013 pic.twitter.com/Ty5AFGW6b8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Last trade on NO majority on Betfair = 39.3% No overall majority price on Betfair drops to 39.3% pic.twitter.com/Reo1fDv05f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Punters could be buying the “voteless recovery” narrative The charts are from Betfair’s mobile site which annoyingly don’t show dates. The price…

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The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…

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The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

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2010 LD to LAB switching 2010 CON to UKIP switching Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election. The pie charts above say it all. At the last general election the Lib Dem secured 24% of the overall GB vote while…

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14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

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Good chart from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/feJQJBE8NT showing polling trends since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/dDS86kDbSi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election. The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still…

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Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

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Where PB goes others follow At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000. The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly…

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Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

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The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…

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Let’s kill this myth once again. Cameron never had the chance of a minority government in May 2010

Let’s kill this myth once again. Cameron never had the chance of a minority government in May 2010

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May 11 2010 The Tories hadn’t won & there was need for Brown to step aside I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed to win a majority and there was no obligation on him to go to the palace and recommend to the Queen that Cameron should be invited to form a government. It is this central constitional fact that the “Dave should have gone…

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