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Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

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The above finding from today’s Popuus online poll is not surprsing particuarly as public sector worker have been facing many of the impacts of the coalition’s efforts to reduce the deficit. I’ve not been able to find comparative GE2010 data from Populus but without success. Ipsos-MORI, though, reported in April 2010 that public sector workers split CON 33/ LAB 22/ LD 37/ UKIP 2. This is not directly comparable with Populus but perhaps does provide a pointer. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average

The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average

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After a big week politically and some generally better ratings the Tories have closed the gap by 1.4% in the latest PB weekly average. We have been producing this weekly since the start of the year to help us better follow trends from the five times a weeky YouGov polls. This is a big move upwards which would have been greater if today’s poll for the Sunday Times had not had LAB back up at 40 with the Tories at…

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For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

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This should shake up the betting markets Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top. As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout. Note. The change figures on the above…

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It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014

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One Saturday a month we seem to have a glut of polls with ComRes for the Indy on Sun/ S Mirror, Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. On top of this ComRes, will be publishing an EP2014 survey, which is only the fourth such poll from any firm since the start of the year. Judging by polling activity you wouldn’t think that this election is only nine and a half weeks away. ComRes tell…

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Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

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A reaction to Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum”? Today’s Populus online poll sees the LAB lead down to just 1%. The raw number show LAb still with a big lead but the weighted ones, after the demographic and certainty calculations, the Tory deficit comes right down. Now as I keep on saying it is wise not to equate correlation with causation. But the big thing that’s happened has been EdM’s EU referendum announcement, which was dominating the headlines at the…

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PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

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The bookies make LAB 4/5 odds on favourite to win Calder Valley – No 91 on http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF target list pic.twitter.com/pao4AI8sOP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2014 Backing the Tories at evens could be a good bet As I’ve written before my betting strategy for GE2015 is to stick with national outcome punts on Labour but go with single constituencies on the Tories. I’m also betting on UKIP and the LDs whenever I spot value. Thus I’m on the purples…

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Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

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Bury N, where LAB lost council seat to CON last night, is in LAB GE2015 target #41 http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF pic.twitter.com/GDGLbL1xFT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 CON GAIN from LAB Ramsbottom on Bury CON 1398 LAB 1033 UKIP 351 GRN 157 LD 38 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 It is well over a year since PB started its regular Thursday night coverage of local council by-election. Harry Hayfield has done a great job of keeping us all informed. For me the significant results are…

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The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

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Exactly 14 months to go & LAB leads jumps to 9..BUT.. LAB lead in YouGov Sun poll jumps 6 to 9% CON 31% LAB 40% LD 9% UKIP 13% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases. This is one of the reasons why…

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