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Category: General Election

Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

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CON has most positive votes and the fewest tactical ones The chart above is based on the finding new form of questioning which has just been tested by Opinium for its latest Observer poll. After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?” For those…

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The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

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CON GE2015 hopes are too reliant on Miliband’s poor ratings The Times is leading on polling about Ed Miliband’s PM ratings which are not good for Labour. There is no doubt that on almost every measure when put up against Cameron he does worse – sometimes by quite a margin. But you have to put these sorts of numbers into context. The PM ratings trend chart above is from the last general election that the Tories were returned to power…

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Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

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It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015. In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite. From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th…

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If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

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How the budget moves fit with the overall trend Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International. Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen? Clearly the daily ratings can…

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UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

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Sunday Times pic.twitter.com/otaZJZGfbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 Survation finds CON now 2nd place for Euro Elections UPDATE: UKIP slip to 3rd place in Survation Euro2014 poll Not quite cross-over but nearly there Tonight’s Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday provides a massive boost for the Tories following the budget. The pollster, which pioneered prompting for Farage’s party, has traditionally had the biggest shares for UKIP. That’s down 3 to 15% while the Tories jump 4. The…

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YouGov finds 66 percent backing Osborne’s budget but LAB’s 5pc lead remains

YouGov finds 66 percent backing Osborne’s budget but LAB’s 5pc lead remains

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Times fromt page story on polling reaction to the budget pic.twitter.com/tvFnasDwtE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2014 Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, the first to be carried out wholly after the budget has CON 34 LAB 39 LD 10 UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Voters might have already made their minds up about GE2015 and there’ll be little shifting As can be seen from the Times front page the first Budget polling by YouGov finds strong support from voters for the…

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The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

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The CON bingo poster came from party chairman Grant Shapps See this from his Twitter page pic.twitter.com/ekOCIBa3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Both resonate because they reinforce perceptions We all remember the famous Liam Byrne hand-over note in May 2010 telling his successor at the Treasury that there’s no money left. That struck home because it touched a widespread view of the LAB approach to public spending. The Grant Shapps Tweet poster is damaging because it touches directly on…

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Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

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The Mail front page dominated by the budget pic.twitter.com/12d4hmPeqK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative. Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and…

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