William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB
Following the weekend’s ICM Scottish poll people have begun to look more closely at what the impact in a general election might be if the 59 Scottish MPs were removed. Clearly GE2015 will take place as planned but the above chart has been produced to make a general point – LAB would find it harder to win general elections without Scotland but this can be overestimated. The table above sets out key numbers. The House of Commons based on the…
If Survation for the MoS is right the LDs set to lose Eastleigh You can get UKIP at 4/1 from Ladbrokes in Eastleigh which seems like a good bet. I’ve long said the Eastleigh was UKIP’s best hope because of its performance in the February 2013 by-election. This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset….
Is 35% Labour’s new bedrock support? It’s better to be lucky than to be good, so the saying goes – and in politics, success or failure frequently turns on the timing of events over which those involved have little or no control: their luck, in effect. What they make of that luck is a different matter. To that end, the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Conservatives delivered Ed Miliband a very great slice of luck. Not only did…
Just look at the chart above showing the aggregate CON+LAB vote in all general elections since 1950. GE2010 saw the big two share down to its lowest level. Now with the emergence of UKIP it could edge down even more. What this means is that it is possible for a party to win a general election with little more than a third of the GB vote. At GE2005 Tony Blair’s Labour came home with a 60+ majority on just 36.2%…
Welcome to Axelrod versus Crosby The Guardian front page with news of Labour's appointment of Axelrod to advise on party's GE2015 campaign pic.twitter.com/NLeJSbT9vb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2014 How much can Ed’s new hire bring that’s relevant to the UK? There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring. Axelrod’s great strength is that he’s good at messaging but he’ll…
The 2010 LDs now saying LAB are Ed’s most enthusiastic backers The two big reasons, it is argued, why Labour should not put place too much confidence in current poll ratings are Ed’s personal poll numbers in relation to Dave and the ongoing Tory lead on the economy. No party, it is said, has ever won power when it is behind on both. That might be the case though there are very few data points and modern polling is very…
Crossover may be in sight but crossover isn’t enough for Dave The Omnishambles Budget of 2012 was perhaps Ed Miliband’s high point of the parliament. In that response, he set the political narrative for at least a Summer and put the government, and George Osborne in particular, right on the back foot. He introduced a readily reusable slogan and one which penetrated well into public consciousness. Unsurprisingly, translated into healthy opinion poll leads, reversing the brief bounce the Tories enjoyed…