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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

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The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 Two months ago @LordAshcroft 's marginals polling found LAB set to gain 13 of the 14 seats polled. Now that's down to 10 with UKIP taking 2. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled UKIPNnow in lead in Thurrock…

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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

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With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…

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My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

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Curtice is right: LD switchers aren’t going back “any time soon” In a broad-ranging interview just published Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice made these observations about Labour’s polling position and GE2015. “..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon… ..I see no reason why…

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

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The 14 CON held marginals that @LordAshcroft polled in May. It looks like these are the seats for his latest polling pic.twitter.com/mqPFWFk4MC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 @MSmithsonPB all revealed next week Mike! — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014 Are the blues getting a first time incumbency bonus? I got into a good natured Twitter exchange last night with Lord Ashcroft about the seats that will be included in his next round of marginals polling due to…

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Say hello to the Lilac Tories

Say hello to the Lilac Tories

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David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics.  One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP.  On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time?  The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…

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On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

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Nicky Morgan's Loughborough is a key marginal which on uniform swing goes LAB even if CON ahead on votes nationally pic.twitter.com/yAA3hSUQln — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 Ladbrokes make it LAB 10/11 and CON 10/11 The above table is based on the Electoral Calculus projection of what happens on national vote shares of CON 36, LAB 35.6, LD, 12, UKIP 9. The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s…

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Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

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I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

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From the recent @LordAshcroft CON-LAB marginals poll: Miliband's most enthusiastic backers – LD-LAB switchers pic.twitter.com/NJ6f8TaN7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 It’s a totally different election with very different dynamics There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s GE1997 victory, coming as it did after four election defeats over the previous 18 years, was a stunning success. Blair did it by reinventing his party so it would appeal to large swaithes of voters who never before had done anything other than…

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