The first target for the blues – to be doing better than last time At GE2010 the Conservatives had a GB national vote share of 37% which was 7.3% bigger than Labour’s total of 29.7%. So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it…
Could the ex-LAB defence & Scottish Sec, Jim Murphy solve his party's Scottish crisis? pic.twitter.com/Q6lGRgLNU2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014 There are 41 Scottish LAB seats at stake The key fact to remember when discussing the impact of Scotland on UK politics is that there are 59 seats north of the border of which LAB hold 41. So anything that could weaken the party in the eyes of Scottish voters could have a big impact on GE15. Any…
Tonight's YouGov for S Times sees LAB & CON once again level pegging. CON 33%-1 LAB 33% -1 UKIP 16% +1 LD 7% +1 GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 CON & LAB level pegging in tonight's Opininum poll for Observer Con 33+5 Lab 33-2 Ukip 18+1 LD 6%-3 GRN 4= SNP 4= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 But the big political news.. The big political news tonight on sex lives of party supporters http://t.co/SlJXte7iZD pic.twitter.com/JhBdzktZGt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2014 More headlines…
pic.twitter.com/jIwcoQCiPR — PolPics (@PolPics) October 25, 2014 How come poor CON/LAB/LD polls are being accepted so readily? Time was when you could be reasonably sure that a party struggling in the polls would lead inevitably to speculation about its leader’s position. The media would talk about it, backbench MPs would talk about it and cabinet or shadow cabinet members would let their friends talk about it. What is remarkable about the last few years is that despite unprecedented combined unpopularity…
To whoever suggested this my thanks I’ve just been reviewing my current open political bets and one, which I’d completely forgotten about, was UKIP to win Cambourne & Redruth at an amazing 40/1. It was placed with PaddyPower a week before Christmas. My recall is that this came out of a discussion one evening and I think Peter the Punter was involved. If I’ve named the wrong person then my apologies. Five months after that bet an Ashcroft poll of…
At what level majority will Lord A find the Tories holding on in the marginals? In the past year we’ve seen a revolution in British political polling which is totally transforming the way wrong look at General Elections. Rather than the focus being on national polls from which we can project seat numbers we are seeing an avalanche of constituency polls coming mostly from Lord Ashcroft and initiatives funded by wealthy UKIP donors. These are serious polls of single constituencies…
Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party. So the ComRes sample was split in two with the first using the conventional approach and the second including…
Too much pushes the blues and purples apart Split parties do not win elections, so the saying goes. Nor, by extension, do parties whose natural support base is divided between parties, particularly under FPTP – which is why from time to time we hear calls from some on the right-of-centre for an electoral pact between the Conservatives and UKIP, who look at the 45-50% that the two parties poll between them and dream of landslide governments rather than impotent oppositions. …