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Category: General Election

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 What current MP Tweeted yesterday “@FarageNo: @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft That's what happens when you don't visit the constituency in 3 months.” #desperatelyseekingNigel — Laura Sandys (@LauraSandysMP) November 27, 2014 At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought…

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Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

Farage in trouble in Thanet S while Clegg could be struggling in Sheffield Hallam

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Main opposition party leader seat polling from @Lord Ashcroft pic.twitter.com/NtRm0hCnih — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 But elsewhere latest Ashcroft polls good for LDs LDs 9% lead over CON in latest batch @LordAshcroft LD held seat polls CON 27 LAB 13 LD 36 UKIP 17 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/ZsXj9yTfFU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2014 Interesting in @LordAshcroft polls Lib Dems holding 9/11 seats where Tories 2nd. Suggests their spin on digging in not just puff — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 27, 2014 Seat-by-seat…

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Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

Kippers least likely to have felt the recovery – Tories the most likely

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No surprise there then but a big challenge for the coalition The chart is based on aggregate data for Populus polls last month and is broadly in line with what we seen from other pollsters. Those currently saying they’ll vote UKIP have the most negative views about the recovery. Given that both coalition partners will be trying to claim credit for what’s happened this message is going to be hard to get across to the biggest group of swing voters….

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Scoping the scale and geography of Labour’s Scottish collapse – hopefully we’ll get some constituency polling this week

Scoping the scale and geography of Labour’s Scottish collapse – hopefully we’ll get some constituency polling this week

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One of the big unknowns about GE2015 is how Labour is going to fare in Scotland where at GE2010 it retained 41 of the 59 Westminster seats. Clearly anything that could erode that total could have massive impact on the overall outcome. There have only been three Scotland only polls in the past eight weeks all of them suggesting that EdM’s party is in serious trouble and could possibly lose a lot of seats while it is making inroads in…

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Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more significant – the Tory collapse in England

Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more significant – the Tory collapse in England

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By my reckoning this is an 8.5% CON-LAB swing A great feature of the weekly Ashcroft National Poll is that it shows a separate voting split for England where 533 of the 650 constituencies are including the vast bulk of the marginals. This was “won” by Cameron’s Conservatives overwhelmingly in 2010 making net gains of more than 90 and forming the bedrock of their overall positive outcome. The party secured 39.2% of the English vote against Labour’s 28.1. The poll…

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The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

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But these are the most dramatic figures of all In England where 533 of the 650 seats are @LordAshcroft has CON 28 LAB 34 LD 6 UKIP 22 GRN 8 So UKIP just 6% behind CON — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2014 This is starting to get serious for the blue team As usual at 4pm on Monday Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest weekly national phone poll and today’s show the LAB lead moving to 5%. The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that…

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How online polls are producing higher LAB and UKIP shares while phone surveys are best for the LDs and Greens

How online polls are producing higher LAB and UKIP shares while phone surveys are best for the LDs and Greens

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CON is about the same under either approach After my post last night on how there is a big gap between phone and online polling on the CON+LAB aggregates I decided to take this a bit further looking at how each party fared under each approach. The results, based on the last public polls of nine firms, are featured in the chart above. Essentially LAB and UKIP do better with the online polling while the LDs and Greens come out…

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Daily Express reporting new poll with UKIP in second place

Daily Express reporting new poll with UKIP in second place

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Daily Express reporting on its front page that UKIP in SECOND place in new poll. No details of the pollster. pic.twitter.com/rOQHv6Goeq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2014 No other details known at the moment UPDATE Could the ExprEss poll be this Sun readers' survey which IS NOT A PROPER POLL. Known in business as a "voodoo poll" pic.twitter.com/M6DwP7KT7T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2014 2nd Update 0430 The poll appears to be based on a subset of Sun…

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