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Category: General Election

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

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Most seats betting On the morning of Osbo's big speech CON gets tighter in GE most seats betting & now almost level with LAB pic.twitter.com/2J3w02gyqx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Overall majority betting Best overall majority odds now just 1/2 in GE 15 outcome betting. LAB maj just has edge on CON pic.twitter.com/3BnVQ0lxcN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 But it’s Scotland not the economy that’s influencing the markets As we face the most uncertain general election…

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YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

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Can the NHS be sidelined? The above chart is based on YouGov data for today’s Times and shows the different perceptions, broken down by party support, of what might happen to the NHS if the Tories win GE15. What I find interesting is the fairly similar range of responses in the chart between LAB and UKIP voters. The pattern is the same. In a sense this tells us nothing new. The real matter is whether Cameron/Osborne can sideline this as…

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

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@MSmithsonPB: Indy story that new rules http://t.co/qsTs7zzffQ on student registering to vote could cost Clegg seat pic.twitter.com/DJ6XQcswfu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 And that could mean trouble for Clegg in Sheffield Hallam Following the Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam poll last week which had the LD leader with a lead of just 3% over LAB there’s a new analysis of student voting patterns by Oxford’s Stephen Fisher suggesting that Nick Clegg and other Lib Dems could be vulnerable in…

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Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

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Why I’m not betting on LAB seat numbers By my reckoning LAB, based on the Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals, could be on target to make at least 50 gains or more from CON and the LDs at GE2015. More LAB possibles might come into the frame when Lord A has polled seats with CON majorities higher up target list. The big shadow hanging over the red team is that it currently has 41 seats in Scotland many of…

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There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

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Just what Farage didn't want. Ex-MEP & BNP leader, Nick Griffin, says he's now supporting UKIP http://t.co/EYq16a4jg9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Vote #UKIP to kick Cameron…but don't be fooled by Toryboy Nigel. pic.twitter.com/GRTLaUPJqi — Nick Griffin (@nickjgriffinbnp) November 28, 2014 Meanwhile Farage’s price in Thanet S continues to weaken PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB ease odds further on UKIP/Farage in Thanet South betting. Was 4/11 – now 5/6 pic.twitter.com/l0M0ZNIbzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

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Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam LAB 7/2 with PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB in Shef Hallam following @LordAshcroft poll with Clegg just 3% ahead pic.twitter.com/lcyKAVksCY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Farage’s Thanet South Punters still backing Farage in Thanet S in spite of @LordAshcroft poll showing him 5% behind pic.twitter.com/PnHO4wVh8U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Rochester: Can Mark Reckless repeat by-election success? Chart showing where the betting money is going for Rochester & Strood at GE15 pic.twitter.com/mjHZ3Sbs4C — Mike Smithson…

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Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

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SNP GE15 seats move up nearly 2 on the Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR spread betting market. See latest pic.twitter.com/pduuxgRE9K — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2014 Never mind “we’re all in it together”: eat the rich (or foreigners)! Blame is of almost limitless supply in politics but that’s not to say it doesn’t retain significant value if fashioned with skill. Two policy announcements this week gave ample good indication that both Labour and the Conservatives are more than willing to make…

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