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Category: General Election

LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target

LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target

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Survation private polling suggests the LDs "competitive" in Solihill CON target number 3 http://t.co/4JXAuHaYct pic.twitter.com/WOdNRrFFyc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015 Ladbrokes have them at 10/3 Big polling story of the day are the reports of Survation private seat surveys for the Lib Dems some of the details of which the party is publishing. A key element, unlike the Ashcroft polling, is that incumbent MPs are named which is having a positive impact on response. This is from the report:…

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There could be a swing-back to the incumbent government – the yellow bit rather than the blue

There could be a swing-back to the incumbent government – the yellow bit rather than the blue

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When the formal campaign starts politics could be very different One of the great hopes that has kept Tory spirits alive during this difficult period when consistent poll leads seem to have eluded them is the well recorded pattern of swing-backs to the government. We saw that markedly in the final stage of GE2010 when Labour finished with a far higher share of the vote and considerably more seats than anybody foresaw. The spread markets at the start of polling…

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Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going to be as easy for UKIP to take CON seats as was thought

Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going to be as easy for UKIP to take CON seats as was thought

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1. Boston & Skegness: pic.twitter.com/qPH9zxPmZL — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 2. Castle Point: pic.twitter.com/fN7TOjZ1bi — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 3. South Basildon & East Thurrock: pic.twitter.com/PtDrEtY0qI — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 4. North East Cambridgeshire: pic.twitter.com/UC2rVWuJPn — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 Lord A UKIP-CON marginals data finds little evidence of anti-purple tactical voting. 18/19% of 2010 LABLIBCON vote goes UKIP but not enough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2015 Big surprise…

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Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

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The John Curtice guide to what SNP leads in Scotland mean in terms of seats pic.twitter.com/NNzk0nSU64 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2015 The extraordinary impact of Scotland Looking at the GB electorate as a whole the total of voters who have moved from LAB to the SNP in Scotland amount to fewer than 1% yet the impact in terms of seats can be enormous which is why Scottish polls are so significant. I am sure we are all aware…

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After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition

After this week’s “pollercoaster” now YOU predict the election in PB’s Prize Competition

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Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/D3MPN5IxJe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2015 Win a Marf cartoon & a betting prize GE15 Competition Phase 1 Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter seat totals for the main parties. The winner will be the person with the smallest overall error. The plan is to run several competitions as we get closer. I am delighted to announce that Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, has agreed to provide a…

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The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend

The mystery of the second ICM poll that was carried out last weekend

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Does it show similar figures to the published poll? With much of the current GE15 narrative being linked to ICM’s 4% lead poll from Monday it is interesting to note that this was not the only survey being carried out by the firm at the weekend. On Sunday, as I have reported, I was polled by ICM. The call was initiated from the firm’s big political calling centre in the Bromham Road in Bedford which is, incidentally, only about a…

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GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

GE2015 comes down to Brand “Labour” versus Brand “Cameron”. Which will prevail?

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Meanwhile the negatives build up against the purples it has been said often in recent months that what the country really wants is a Labour government led by David Cameron. This perception is reinforced by the latest positive/negative in this week’s Ashcroft Nationaal Pooll. The question was quite simple “On scale of -100 to +100 how positive/negative do you feel about..? “ The chart is based on the net figures for all those listed with a breakdown for “swing” voter…

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