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It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates

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Why the LDs are releasing some of their private polling Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking. The reason for the part disclosure is to make a very simple point that naming the candidates can make a huge difference – as seen in the one poll that was…

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It looking as though Al Murray is starting to get under Nigel Farage’s skin

It looking as though Al Murray is starting to get under Nigel Farage’s skin

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Spectator And that’s what the Pub Landlord really wants One of the side-shows of May 7th is the Pub Landlord’s campaign in South Thanet, where Farage is seeking to win. It’s a tough three way marginal but the latest from Survation had him with a comfortable lead. All of this makes his reaction to the Election Commission’s ruling on Al Murray and his FUKP party quite surprising and over the top. What Farage need to do is go along with…

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Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the post-election scramble

Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the post-election scramble

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Marf on Royal Wedding day April 2011 To govern is to choose It is fast becoming received wisdom that the general election in May will produce an inconclusive result, and all the parties are setting out their stalls in advance, marking their red lines. The SNP say they won’t prop up the Conservatives, the Labour party are likely to rule out a deal with the SNP, the Lib Dems may insist on a full coalition or no deal at all…

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One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga

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Tories move to a 64% chance of winning most seats on Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/cvOGXUnbdz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 All published polls since start of month pic.twitter.com/GAhfqPNumI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2015 Only fly in the ointment for the blues – Populus Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start…

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The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft

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Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (=), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-1), GRN 6 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Trend chart with @LordAshcroft 's latest poll pic.twitter.com/RjRI0Vo4gW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2015 Only 2 of @LordAscroft polls this year have had LAB…

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PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

PB’s LAB insider, Henry G Manson, gives his assessment of Cameron’s approach to the debates saga

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It’d tricky for Dave coming under scrutiny from 6 different sides David Cameron is a good media performer and remains his party’s biggest asset. There has been a lot of focus on the suggestion that despite this it’d be better for his party if he avoids the televised debates because of the platform it will give Ed Miliband. I know the theory, but this does not stack up for me and seem that convincing. What else could Conservative strategists be…

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Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

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Norman Lamb could be the "stop Farron" candidate if there's an early LD leadership fight http://t.co/nnKi8Y4nBh pic.twitter.com/vsRgO7hIWw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2015 The Indy on Sunday is reporting this morning that a number of the party’s peers and MPs have approached him about being a candidate should there be a post May 7th leadership contest. It reports: Speaking before the Lib Dem spring conference in Liverpool this week, Mr Lamb admitted he is thinking about running. ‘When people raise…

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Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

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BBC Results 2010 Capital City “Blues” Dr Carl Sagan once said “you have to understand the past to know the present”. Looking at the election battleground that is Greater London and its 73 seats, that quote seems strangely apposite. In 2010, Labour narrowly “won” London in terms of votes but lost a net seven seats to the Conservatives. The swing against the then Government was lower in London than nationally and the latest YouGov poll shows Labour improving its position….

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