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Category: General Election

Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

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The Intellectually stimulating campaign begins LAB protesters @ CON Launch CON ones @ LAB launch Via @PoliticalPics pic.twitter.com/ktUELzqgsM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 We should get the first full post debate polls tonight My guess is that the campaigning won’t start in earnest until after Easter and it will only be after then that most people will start to take notice. The final fortnight is, as you’d expect the most intensive. One thing we know is that this will be the…

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Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

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Five years ago PBers described the 2010 event as wank fest We got a name check from YouGov polling head Jo Twyman, at the opening of today’s conference at the LSE when different academic groups made their predictions. He recalled that on the thread in 2010 this gathering was described as a wankfest which got a good response. What’s happening is that separate forecasting groups are presenting their findings and explaining how their approaches. The table above shows the main…

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LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

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The “debates” haven’t done either Ed or Dave any harm There’s been a small recovery for LAB in the most seats betting over the past week and since last night’s C4/Sky “debate” that trend has continued. But Labour has a very long way to go on the markets till it reaches parity with the Tories once again. The blues are expected to make progress during the campaign itself and that is reflected in the betting. The spread markets were suspended…

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A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

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Lord Ashcroft polls This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter. One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might…

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If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

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How the fight is on a knife edge Given the political and betting importance of which party wins most seats I’ve been looking at the maths to try to get a broad figure of what would be a CON victory on seats or a CON defeat. I’ve made several assumptions that clearly will impact on the equation. In broad terms the gap between the main parties as we start the formal campaign is 46 seats. So if there was no…

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The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

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The trend in Survation's GE15 polling pic.twitter.com/BkpyCWmSgD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 New Survation poll for Daily Mirror has LAB 1 ahead LAB 33% -1 CON 32% +3 UKIP 18% -1 LD 8% -1 GRN 4% nc SNP 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the…

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ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

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The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…

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As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

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In vote terms this couldn’t be tighter This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares. In terms of seats level-pegging suits Ed Miliband much more than it does David Cameron. The latter needs to see his party at least three up across a range of firms to be confident…

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