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Category: General Election

David Herdson says Ed won the debate because Clegg and Bennett didn’t

David Herdson says Ed won the debate because Clegg and Bennett didn’t

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NIGHTMARE! Ed Miliband as PM, propped up by Alex Salmond ‘calling the tune’ if Labour gets into Downing Street pic.twitter.com/uNFHs5deTo — Grant Shapps (@grantshapps) March 9, 2015 Why for Dave the strong Sturgeon performance was a sideshow Earlier this campaign, the Conservatives unveiled the above poster showing Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket; the inference being that in a hung parliament it would be the SNP pulling Labour’s strings. Nicola Sturgeon’s very capable handling of Thursday’s debate did nothing to…

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In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and EdM getting positive approval numbers for first time

In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and EdM getting positive approval numbers for first time

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Approval ratings for last night’s participants Although the voting numbers don’t have much change the leader approval numbers could provide good pointers. Of the seven who took part last night only Clegg had negative ratings. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB

The debate: The post mortem continues

The debate: The post mortem continues

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The notion that betting’s a good pointer to political outcomes got thwacked last night One of the things I keep on getting asked is whether betting markets are good pointer to political outcomes. Well last night we might have had an answer. Right throughout the event and on the Betfair exchange the money was going on Nigel Farage who became a very tight odds-on favourite. This is what Ladbrokes Shadsy writes on his blog:- “..on the YouGov poll that Ladbrokes…

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Chaos or competence is a good slogan for Tories but Ed’s not going to be a push-over

Chaos or competence is a good slogan for Tories but Ed’s not going to be a push-over

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Overall none of the seven did themselves harm As a general rule you have to wait a few days before you can draw firm conclusions about the impact of high profile event like TV debates. We had four instant polls and four different winners. I’ve yet to study the detail but it was odd that the bookies’ favourite firm, YouGov, produced a different polling outcome from the others. Having had a spread bet of Sturgeon with SPIN that was no…

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To start big debate night Marf gives her take….

To start big debate night Marf gives her take….

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And another GE15 poll – this time from Panelbase New Panelbase GB poll has CON & LAB level pegging for 2nd week in a row CON 33% LAB 33% UKIP 17% LD 7% GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 More @LordAshcroft marginals polling to be published next week. My guess is that he'll be back with the CON-LAB battlegrounds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Debate starts pic.twitter.com/Z2xIBLTBg8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 The…

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Debate day – some facts and figures

Debate day – some facts and figures

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Like the first debate in 2010 the location is Manchester. This time at Media City Salford Quays pic.twitter.com/EQmo5pR9kO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Interesting from @BBCNewsGraphics. Where the close races are. pic.twitter.com/TBu11ZfTz9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 LAB retakes lead with Populus Lab. 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), GN 5 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 ENGLAND+WALES shares today's Populus onlineCON 33.7LAB 34.5LD 9.1UKIP 16.5This = CON to…

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The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

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Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP. These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share. The biggest slippage of…

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Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

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At this stage not naming the candidates becomes a defect Ashcroft detail from Sheffield Hallam where Clegg in troubleLAB GAIN pic.twitter.com/P9zLFxGFmc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft CambridgeLD HOLD 9% lead over LAB pic.twitter.com/Q1IZYGRLyo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft TorbayLD HOLD pic.twitter.com/PhiaZWLZFW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft St IvesLD HOLD pic.twitter.com/47YM6WLD7f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft St Austell & NewquayCON GAIN pic.twitter.com/D8dVRAa917 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015…

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