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ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

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CON extend lead to 3 in latest Guardian ICM poll pic.twitter.com/4pTbLA8dMQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 It’s almost no change with Populus The Populus figures CON 33%GRN 5%LAB 36%LD 8%UKIP 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 TNS has SNP with 32% lead in Scotland New TNS Scotland poll has SNP with 32% leadSNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27,…

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David Herdson asks: Where’s Cleggy?

David Herdson asks: Where’s Cleggy?

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Solving the riddle of the election’s missing man Two Kings and a Joker is the hand the media traditionally aims to deal the public in their coverage of general elections. They don’t always manage to do so as it depends on the real-life characters available but the battle for No 10 is usually best told as a contest between two big parties with a wild-card element thrown in. That wild-card has usually been the Lib Dems, or the Liberal-SDP alliance…

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Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

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Summary latest @LordAshcroft seat polls pic.twitter.com/I0ST2L7UC0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol WCON 14LAB 38LD 20UKIP 2GN 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft ThurrockCON 30LAB 31LD 2UKIP 35GN 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft High PeakCON 40LAB 38LD 7UKIP 10GN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Colne ValleyCON 37LAB 35LD 8UKIP 11GN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol NWCON 43LAB 34LD 8UKIP 8GN 6…

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LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in London

LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in London

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The morning’s polling news LAB extends lead to 3 with PopulusLab 35 (+1), Con 32 (-), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 14 (-1), Greens 5 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's Populus poll CON 33.79% LAB 34.94% LD 8.72% UKIP 13.83%CON to LAB swing since 2010 of 5.6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 New Evening Standard London pollhttp://t.co/mutx1pxBBg pic.twitter.com/eRJJuocFqa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 CON 15 seat lead…

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The three 4% CON lead polls this week cannot all be dismissed as outliers

The three 4% CON lead polls this week cannot all be dismissed as outliers

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What should be making LAB feel a tad uneasy is the three polls this week with 4% CON leads pic.twitter.com/fxaCDj1f1u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 But only 1 CON lead from YouGov in a fortnight The final poll to come out last night, YouGov’s 2% LAB lead, will have eased some nerves amongst the red team. But inevitably they should be worrying about the fact that we have now had 3 surveys in 6 days which have had…

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A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night

A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night

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UPDATE Survation/Mirror poll has CON 4% ahead DailyMirror @Survation poll (was embargoed to 7pm) CON 33; LAB 29; LD 10; UKIP 18; SNP 4; GRE 4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 LAB had 29.7% share in 2010. Tonight's Survation/Mirror poll has them on 29%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 First up this afternoon was Panelbase Panelbase has 3% LAB leadLAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC) — Mike…

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On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100 seat lead – it finished up at 49 seats

On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100 seat lead – it finished up at 49 seats

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Actual seats won: CON 306, LAB 257, LD 57 One thing that really annoys me is when people start suggesting that betting prices are the best guide to what is going to happen. If this were the case then favourites would always win. They don’t. In the two TV debates during this campaign the betting markets made Nigel Farage favourite to be judged the winner in post debate polling. He wasn’t. But a better example of the shallowness of the…

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For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)

For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)

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Listed above are all the constituencies in England and Wales which would change hands on swings between 2% and 6% from CON to LAB. In most of them Lord Ashcroft has at some point in the past year conducted constituency specific polls. The least marginal, Crewe and Nantwich was polled earlier in the month. My working assumption is that almost all of Labour’s Scottish seats are going to go and my focus is on the CON-LAB battlegrounds in England and…

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