In 2012 many more said they’d vote for him than actually did A lot has been written in the past week about so-called “shy Tories” who are reluctant to tell pollsters on the phone or when they complete online questionnaires that they’ll support the blues. Yet look at what happened in 2012 when Boris was re-elected as mayor of London – the opposite happened. Every single pollsters had Boris lead at a level bigger than it was. Of the firms…
Kent police make enquiries following reports of electoral fraud in Thanet South #GE2015 seat http://t.co/xCC6na4QDf pic.twitter.com/D11flj5EhW — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 13, 2015 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfnNigel Farage to become MP before next General Election: Yes 7/4; No 2/5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2015 Douglas Carswell to remain UKIP MP until next General Election: Yes 8/11 No Evens — William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2015 A ,ore elegant version of the LAB leadership timetable…
A big public split with Carswell was almost inevitable The very public row that has broken out between Farage and his party’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, was one that had been widely predicted. The only issue was what would spark it off. For because of his unique MP status it is up to Carswell to decide on how the public funds that UKIP is due from what is known as Short money should be used. The Clacton MP believes passionately…
Labour's private pollsters had party in much worse position than public polls. http://t.co/hRSjDD5Sof pic.twitter.com/QkoNMHccme — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2015 In this News Statesman article James Morris, from Labour’s US-based pollster GQR, explain how its approach was different and is likely to produce far fewer don’t knows which, it is argued, add to accuracy. He also notes that I was one of those interviewed. “The main difference between our polls and the newspaper polls is that we don’t ask…
Farage unresigns – http://t.co/VYN9YMdibq pic.twitter.com/J5oUsBuHca — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2015 During the campaign Farage made a big thing of him being ready to step down if he failed to win Thanet South. Well he did fail and did announce last Friday that he was resigning. This afternoon he’s back in the job after the party’s NEC “refused to accept it”. Rubbish. It just appears as though his campaign threat was a device. This doesn’t look good for UKIP…
Thanks to AndyJS for once again providing with such excellent data so quickly.
Liz Kendall tells @afneil that she's a leadership runnerhttp://t.co/OKnfA55VAe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2015 Dan Jarvis rules himself out while Liz Kendall tells Andrew Neil that she is in Well we are off in the race to find the next LAB leader. Last night one of the most heavily tipped possible runners, ex-army Major Dan Jarvis, announced that he would not be putting his name forward. A few hours earlier the relatively unknown Liz Kendall told Andrew Neil…
Congraulations to Mortimer who wins the prize Above is the full spreadsheet from our April prediction competition. Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. Could Mortimer send me an email so I can arrange for the prize? Email. Help keep PB going by making a donation…