Guido tally of MP declarations for LAB leadership now has Yvette ahead of Burnhamhttp://t.co/YUOSqBh0ux pic.twitter.com/hUbOBrfDHv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 28, 2015 https://twitter.com/election_data/status/603998916963627010
There were more non-GE10 voters in the LAB totals than in CON The British Polling Council inquiry into what went wrong with the GE15 is well under way and no doubt many will be putting forward theories about what caused them to be so wrong. One of the factors that I believe was partly responsible for the overstatement of LAB shares is featured in the chart above – a larger part of its support according to the surveys was coming…
How much should we attach to the famous Landale interview? Whenever people discuss the next election they will invariably point out that the Tories will not, unlike 2010 and 2015, be led by David Cameron. All this is based on the televised kitchen conversation that the PM had with the BBC’s James Landale in March a week or so before the official campaign began. My reading after watching the video again is that this was not a firm commitment to…
? Shadow Foreign Secretary @hilarybennmp says Labour will seek to change EU bill:http://t.co/iYJyvaiOon #wato pic.twitter.com/jfFcQzGRds — The World at One (@BBCWorldatOne) May 25, 2015 When Alex Salmond pushed through his measure to allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote in last September’s IndyRef in Scotland it was only a matter of time before this became an issue for the whole of the country. With constitutional change, like Scotland going independent or Britain leaving the EU, there’s clearly a strong…
The million minority voters that put Cameron into Number Ten One million ethnic minority votes helped put David Cameron into Downing Street on election night, according to a major new piece of research into attitudes among minority voters released today. While LAB remains ahead with minority voters on 52%, the research finds that the gap between the two main parties is shrinking dramatically. One third (33%) of ethnic minority voters supported the CON in 2015, a stronger result than ever…
Straight after defeat is not the best time to elect a new leader Michael Howard did the Conservatives two great favours as leader: the manner of his arrival and the manner of his departure. After the hapless two years under Duncan Smith, he (and David Davis, by standing aside), created a much-needed sense of unity and with it, the first signs of the determination and hunger necessary to regain office. Perhaps even more importantly, after he led his party to…
And the BPC announces details of its GE15 inquiry After every general election Ipsos produces a table like the one above which become a key source of reference. Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls. Under the chairmanship of Prof. Patrick Sturgis, Director of the National Centre for Research Methods at the University of Southampton, the Inquiry is charged with the task of establishing the degree of inaccuracy in…
ITV News 2200 May 7th the moment the exit poll was announced The Tories won the ground war There was a persistent refrain from Tories as they looked at polls pointing to David Cameron being ejected from No 10 – “Rememeber 1992â€. It was tempting to reply – “Beware of what you wish for†The Tory annus mirabilis saw John Major confounding the pollsters and trouncing Neil Kinnock with a record 14 million votes. But it swiftly turned into annus…