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Category: EU matters

Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

EP2014 betting pic.twitter.com/J0flbsW18s — PolPics (@PolPics) March 21, 2014 Governments rarely win interim elections William Hague was not a very successful leader of the opposition.  Against Blair’s prolonged political honeymoon, Hague’s Conservatives were regularly so far behind in the polls as to be out of sight.  Not only did they fail to gain a single seat during the parliament but they actually went backwards, losing Romsey to the Lib Dems. However, in the midst of that constant popular battering, he…

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Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead in the GE VI polls but trailed Hague’s CON by 8pts on the day

Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead in the GE VI polls but trailed Hague’s CON by 8pts on the day

General election polls not good indicators for EP election What we mustn’t forget as we approach the May Euro elections is that this is not a national vote where LAB has prospered since the introduction of the party list voting system. The chart shows the CON deficit in the main Westminster polls from April 1999 and compares them with what happened a few weeks when the nation decided on who should represent it at the European parliament. The issue, of…

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Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum” move might be less of a gamble than it looks

Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum” move might be less of a gamble than it looks

The fact a YouGov EU referendum poll, which shows In ahead only for the second time, gets more coverage abroad than in the UK, says a lot. — Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) March 11, 2014 What could have potency is “being denied a vote” We are now just ten weeks away from the Euro Elections and today sees Ed Miliband make a speech in which, effectively, he rules out offering an referendum on whether the UK should stay IN or OUT….

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Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

Much greater scrutiny Expect to see more attacks on UKIP like this in the 11 weeks remaining pic.twitter.com/4AyroUsc1S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 The purples still waiting for their Paul Sykes donation Observer http://t.co/utBXQ83odK has most interesting UKIP #EP2014 campaign story Top donor not handed money over yet pic.twitter.com/l6gFN3AbZk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

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Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband

@LordAshcroft There's no benefit to LAB in helping close down the issue of Europe which has been so divisive for the Tories. No referendum. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 @MSmithsonPB ..wouldn't bet on that… — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 16, 2014 Last night I got into a little Twitter discussion with Lord Ashcroft over Labour and an EU referendum. He was articulating what is a widespread Tory view that EdM will be forced ahead of the election to…

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