The first Lib Dem #Eastleigh leaflet takes an interesting approach based on local track record. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 Maybe it won’t be a dirty campaign after all?
Tory poster in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 Meanwhile at the Lib Dem #Eastleigh HQ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 Is the best CON chance in talking up Labour?
The LDs take a 3% lead in Survation #Eastleigh by-elecion poll for Mail on Sunday. CON 33: LAB 13; LD 36: Ukip 16. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 And LAB is FOURTH place behind Ukip The second poll of the Eastleigh by-election campaign is just out. It is a telephone poll carried out by Survation for the Mail on Sunday and the broad picture it shows it quite similar to the Michael Ashcroft survey on Thursday night….
The Ashcroft #Eastleigh polling data that might be worrying to the Tories – the numbers supporting tactical voting twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 How will Labour supporters vote in the by-election? The first poll makes it pretty obvious that the Eastleigh result will hinge on whether the LibDems can squeeze the Labour vote or not. So how will a typical Labour voter think? Assume you think the Government is rubbish, you really dislike the Tories and think…
#Eastleigh: Bet365, PaddyPower, Coral & Hills make the LDs odds on FAV. Ladbrokes & Stan James have both CON&LD at evens. Betfair LD the FAV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 @opusdeath I plan to make an #Easteigh call once the LD have selected their candidate & maybe we have more polling — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 It’s been a day of consolidation on the by-election betting markets following the publication of Michael Ashcroft’s telephone poll. Although…
Revised pie chart showing Ashcroft Eastleigh poll BEFORE application of certainty to vote filter twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 This will all come down to the GOTV operations We’ve now got the full data from the Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh by-election poll and the detail points to a fascinating and absorbing battle over the next 20 days. The headline figures, as reported last night, had CON 34%: LAB 19%: LD 31%: Ukip 13%. The reason that the Tories…
First Eastleigh poll coming at midnight, courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. Will ruffle a few feathers. — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) February 7, 2013 What does Chapman’s “ruffle a few feathers” mean? The big news for Eastleigh punters is that we are going to see the first by-election poll at midnight. It’s been commissioned by Lord Ashcroft which probably means that it was carried out by Populus. Almost certainly it will be a phone poll. The only indication of what it…