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Ukip local by-election worry for the Tories as we go into the final week in Eastleigh

Ukip local by-election worry for the Tories as we go into the final week in Eastleigh

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MT @msmithsonpb: LDs gain in Chelmsford by election.LD 543 (38%) Con 423 (30%) UKIP 280 (20%) Lab 129 (9%) GRN 47. — Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler) February 20, 2013 @msmithsonpb Vote share changes in the#Broomfield, Chelmsford BC byelection: #LibDems +15%, #Tories -14%. LibDem gain… — ColinW (@sxybio) February 20, 2013 In the total absence of any new Eastleigh by-election polling there’s a marked lack of data as we enter the final week of the campaign. One pointer that might worry the…

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The CON team tries to turn it round with eight campaigning days to go

The CON team tries to turn it round with eight campaigning days to go

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Lib Dem housing horror, shock, smear, cute bunnies in #Eastleigh ! twitter.com/byelection/sta… — Michael Fabricant (@Mike_Fabricant) February 19, 2013 Will this approach resonate with voters? With both the LAB and CON candidates being under serious fire in recent days the blues are turning their guns on the Lib Dem over a big planning issue. Their leaflet is above. One of the problems with having a local councillor as a candidate is that he/she is always vulnerable to things like this…

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The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

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Maria Hutchings with Grant Shapps/Michael Green twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Eastleigh could be a guide to GE2015 The Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh poll carried out before any candidates had been selected found that just 50% of those who’d voted CON at GE2010 said that they would do so again at the by-election. The biggest segment of the remainder, representing 21% of 2010 CON voters were those saying don’t know. A total of 9% said they’d switch to…

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General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh #GE2010 result showing comparison on 2005. Note the huge squeeze on the LAB vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2013 How a huge LAB>LD tactical switch thwarted CON hopes On May 6th 2010 the Tories made an overall total 100 gains yet still, as we all know, fell short of an overall majority. A reason for that was what happened in seats like Eastleigh which in terms of the votes required for victory was number 12 on…

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With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

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Diane James – the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Many of those registered to vote by post received their ballot packs yesterday and if past elections are anything to go by then a sizeable proportion will have been completed and posted them back by tomorrow morning. The election has already started. My reading is that the Labour vote will be squeezed by the sheer intensity of the LD campaign. The reason the yellows…

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#Eastleigh – How punters are seeing the by-election based on actual bets matched

#Eastleigh – How punters are seeing the by-election based on actual bets matched

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Lib Dem 55.3%: CON 37.4%: LAB 5.8%: Ukip 2.8% Betfair #Eastleigh price trend based on actual bets matched. Lib Dems now 55.3% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Betfair #Eastleigh price trend Tories based on acual bets matched. Latest 37.4% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Betfair #Eastleigh price trend LABOURbased on acual bets matched. Latest 5.8% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Ukip #Betfair #Eastleigh price trend based on actual bets matched. Latest…

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Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

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Nigel Farage in Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 There were reports last night of other Eastleigh polls in the field that had the party order at LD, CON, Ukip with LAB in fourth place. Quite what the veractity of that information is I don’t know and in by-elections like this we have to treat reports of unpublished surveys with extreme scepticism. But what has become apparent is that in terms of planning and organisation there are…

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