As the chart, showing the Clinton-Obama fight in terms of the implied probabilities of odds on UK betting markets, illustrates the events of the past week have had an impact but not that much. A number of visitors have expressed surprise at my continuing view that Hillary is still in with a shout even though the pledged delegate totals are against her. Perhaps the best articulation of my nagging doubts about Obama’s chances comes from the US blogger who, for…
The current odds-in favourites in the two most active betting markets are Obama for the Democratic nomination and Boris for the London mayoralty. The former is at 0.4/1 and the latter at 0.68/1. I think that the prices are the wrong way round and that Boris has a substantially better chance of making it than Obama does. Of course with Boris everything depends on how Londoners vote on May 1st while with Obama the majority of state battles have taken…
How will the release of her documents change the race? After a very uncomfortable few days for Barack Obama the battle for the Democratic nomination has now moved on with the publication of thousands of documents from her White House years as first Lady from 1993 to 2001. These have been released under the freedom of information legislation and will be used to test her claims to “experience” and “being ready on Day One”. The ABC news report featured above,…
Can the favourite balance the pressures and silence the critics? At 10.15 ET, 3.15pm in the UK, Barack Obama will rise to make what could be the speech that determines whether he gets the nomination or not. The title “Race, Politics, and Unifying our Country” says it all and all eyes will be on Philadelphia where the event is taking place. This is how the excellent Politico site is setting the scene: “..He is now facing a full-blown and fast-moving…
Ten more delegates go on his overall total ABC News in the US is leading on the above story about the second delegate battle for Iowa – scene of the very first caucus in the nomination process on January 3rd. According to ABC Obama “saw his delegate lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., grow by 10 on Saturday when Iowa Democrats took the second step in picking national convention delegates..Obama’s gains at Saturday’s county conventions came from successfully wooing Iowa…
The candidate responds to the minister who married him and Michelle There’s been a move to Hillary and away from Obama on the Democratic nomination markets in reaction to the overnight story from the US about his pastor. This looks like it could run and the MSNBC video above is well worth watching. In all these things it usually boils down not to the issue itself but how the candidate deals with it. But there clearly is a danger, highlighted…
Introducing O’Bama’s T-shirt for St. Patrick’s Day Latest US betting is here Mike Smithson
The above went out on MSNBC last night and might have an impact. Democratic nomination betting is here.