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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Romney goes into the final day of the campaign without being ahead in any of the closing national polls

Romney goes into the final day of the campaign without being ahead in any of the closing national polls

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The latest batch of final national polls at RCP all have either Obama ahead or the race tied twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2012 Obama also has the edge in many of the closing state polls After a period when we were getting a different picture from the national polls compared with the state ones the overall view of tomorrow’s election is becoming clearer. The president has made small but significant gains in the latest batch of final…

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US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

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The Intrade market with its large US customer base has Romney 10% higher than Betfair. see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair Romney price shows just a small dip in past 24 hours. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair, of course goes to great lengths to ensure that people in the US cannot use its services. I’ve not moved my own betting – still make the same profits whichever one wins….

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Meet Jon Husted – the Republican in charge of voting in Ohio and the reason why I am not going all in on Obama being re-elected

Meet Jon Husted – the Republican in charge of voting in Ohio and the reason why I am not going all in on Obama being re-elected

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Meet Jon Husted, boss of voting in Ohio & the reason why I am not going all in on Obama goo.gl/D4Owx twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Punters should factor in the Ohio legal battles There are huge legal battles taking place in Ohio against moves by John Husted, the Republican Secretary of State and the man in charge of the state’s crucial elections on Tuesday. He’s already caused controversy by trying to limit early voting and this…

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David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie?

David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie?

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David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie? goo.gl/7d21p twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 If it happened we could a Romney-Biden pairing? If the US presidential polling is correct, then Barack Obama is heading for a second term, on a much closer result than his first. It may be that Romney even wins the national vote but Obama’s narrow but consistent lead in key swing states would give him the 270+ Electoral College votes he needs for…

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US punters are moving away from Romney in Ohio

US punters are moving away from Romney in Ohio

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Intrade price on Romney in Ohio drops 10% in two days. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2012 State polls have Obama widening the gap Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

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The Intrade – Betfair gap gets much wider. Romney 32.6% on Intrade but 22.2% on the UK-based Betfair twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2012 A very common feature in the betting for next President is the huge gaps that we’ve seen between the markets like Intrade that have a lot of US customers and those, like Betfair, that don’t. The Romney price on Intrade has been fairly stable today as the chart shows but his nose-dive on Betfair…

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Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

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Latest chart showing how the Intrade Romney price has moved back following its sharp increase this morning. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The Betfair-Intrade split remains. Betfair makes him a 25% shot while Intrade has him at 32% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 So if you want to bet on Obama choose Intrade. Romney punters should got to Betfair Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK…

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Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

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Remember when the pollsters made a hash of the 1992 election. Could that be happening in the US? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The night when John Major defied all the predictions As can be seen from the screen-shot above the exit poll at the 1992 UK general election was very much out – as were, with one notable exception, every single campaign poll. Everything pointed in April 1992 to John Major losing and the then 13…

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